Demographic 'disentrapment'
Maurice King Honorary Research Fellow, University of Leeds.see Comments very welcome indeed. m.h.king@leeds.ac.uk
Most of Middle Africa is demographically trapped, so said its most eminent demographer Jack Caldwell.
The response of academia is to keep this problem tightly taboo — The Hardinian taboo.
This website aims to lift that taboo.
'Community disentrapment programs' are now the major public health priority in Middle Africa, as shown in this diagram
Do come back to me with your e-mails: M.H.King@leeds.ac.uk
Although my study of entrapment began in 1989, this website was not opened until 1997. Additions have been made over the years, but almost nothing has been removed.
Recent additions
Draft of the 'definitive Lancet paper' Demographic entrapment: Rescuing Middle Africa from two corrupt disciplines. November 2011 see
Demons, November 2011 see [July 9th 2010 see]
Older material before 2011
Population Day Handout, July 10th 2010 see
Precursor of the definitive The Lancet paper' see or in PDF see
GLUK lecture see .
Hubris see.
Emesis see '
The Blessed Vincent act' see
This is the key figure see
A community is demographically trapped if there are too many people for the land to support [they have exceeded the carrying capacity of their ecosystem], AND they have nowhere to go, AND they have too few goods and services to exchange for food and other essentials. The result is the severest poverty, stunting, starvation, and commonly violence. see
In 1995, at Wolfson College in Cambridge, I happened to have tea with Jack Caldwell, Africa's most eminent demographer [population scientist]. "How much of [Middle] Africa do you think is demographically trapped?"I asked. "Most of it is, except perhaps Ghana" he replied. "Can I quote you?" "No!" He answered. "Whose interests do I put first, yours or Africa's?" I replied.
When I reported this to Professor Ofosu Amaah, then professor of public health in Accra, he replied "Why don't you think we are?" This will give you some idea of the SCALE of the problem. Unfortunately, there is much evidence to suggest that Jack Caldwell is correct. see Alarmingly, the population of Mddle Africa. is set to tripple by 2050, with Uganda set to quadruple.
Demographic entrapment is tightly taboo [the Hardinian taboo] to the two disciplines which should be concerned with it -- demography and development economics-- they never discuss it, and therefore have to be declared gravely corrupt..Mostly, they do so by tabooing the concept of 'carrying capacity' see. Consequently, the UN agencies and NGOs.don't discuss it either.
There more than 50 reasons for the taboo it's 'Demons' see
Mercifully, demographic entrapment is not taboo in Africa, where 'The crunch message' reduce your fertility or starve is acceptable. see Where it will get to is for the future to decide. The population scene in Africai is in a critical and alarming state.A mathematician colleague referred to it as being 'quasi-impossible'. The challenge is to separate the 'quasi-' from the 'impossible'.see
"DON'T TAKE TABOO!! FOR AN ANSWER "see . This was originally written for the Chairman of the Court of Governance of London school of Hygiene in the hope that he would lift the taboo in the school and 'discorrupt' it .
The population scene in Africa quasi-impossible,see speeding a crash demographic transition. see 'quasi This is the definitive paper in preparation. It has been three times rejected by The Lancet. However, the hope is that it will eventually appear in influential print, because until it does, it will have no effect on the taboo.
Introduction. I am a doctor, and an'old Africa hand', having worked there 20 years .starting in 1953.
In 1989, after I had returned to England to teach at the University of Leeds, I came across the problem of communities in Middle Africa exceeding the carrying capacities of their ecosystems-- too many people for the land to support. . This immediately struck me as being very sinister indeed, so I have been following it up ever since. . In 1990 Jack Bryant, a distinguished American, told me that it was called 'demographic entrapment'. Exceeding the carrying capacity of one's ecosystem is no problem, if one has somewhat else to go [somewhere to migrate to], or if one's community has sufficient goods and services to exchange for food and other essentials. But what if it hasn't? The result is the deepest poverty, starvation and often violence.see
For the open letters to Sir Bob Geldof, and the Comission for Africa, see
Most people seem to understand instinctively what is meant by the term "demographic entrapment" and don't need a definition. The term "disentrapment", which is what to do about it, was missing and had to be invented.
The disturbing fact that large parts of middle Africa, and perhaps even most of it, are demographically trapped is totally taboo to demographers, to development economists and to the UN agencies - who never mention it, and who try to forget that it ends in starvation and violence!
To recognise that demographic entrapment unfortunately does exist radically alters one's view the world, and particularly of Africa, since - if the parts of the South have to reduce their fertility, if necessary to one child only, to avoid starvation and violence, the North will be expected to reduce its resource consumption - and its contribution to global warming!! (The argument of Demon/Angel 3) see.
To recognise that demographic entrapment does exist requires a "paradadigm shift" in ones view of the world in the true Kuhnian and sense of that term. We are now facing a "clash of paradigms" - the paradigm that entrapment does exist, versus the paradigm that it doesn't.see
When paradigms have clashed in the past, and there are some excellent historical examples, they have usually done so as the clash of personalities - the person clinging on to the old paradigm, fighting desperately to uphold it against the person bringing in the new one - and neither protagonist ever changing his mind!.
I find myself in the unhappy position of trying to bring in the new paradigm, while Sir Richard Jolly, Professor Emeritus in the Institute of Development Studies in the University of Sussex, finds himself in the even less happy position of trying to defend the old one. As to where our arguments have got to at present, see. For his earlier arguments see and see.
Why then is entrapment so taboo? For at least 25 reasons which are called its "Demons", following the passage in St Mark "There are many Demons !" For example, severe demographic entrapment may require 1-child families, as in China. Their many problems are Demon 6 - are they better or worse than starvation and violence? The Chinese thought they were better.
To recognise entrapment, and shift ones paradigm, requires that one overcomes all 25 Demons in oneself simultaneously!, or is at least prepared to discuss them. This requires great mental effort, great compassion for the trapped, and a great love for the world, particularly Africa.
For the index (presently rather out of date), see.For the basic thesis and the terms used see.
The taboo on demographic entrapment is the most extreme example of the so-called "Hardinian taboo" whereby we humans taboo our population problems see.
For An Alternative Commission for Africa, see
For Demons in general see.
For the racist Demon 23, see and see
For Demon 21 - a key Demon - in great detail see, in less detail see.
For the entrampent of Africa as a whole, see of Rwanda, see, for North Kivu see, for Vanga see. For Vanga in French see
For Genu robustum ("bloody good knee") see
For Figure 'X' see
For the 'The Population policy lockstep' see
For "end-stage of the child survival revolution" see
For The Lancet being editorially corrupt see
For Unicef and "child survivalism" see.
For Malthus see
For "Global warming scares me stiff !!" see
For Andrew Green rallies to Sir Richard's support, see
There is a book on this website called Primary Mother Care and Population see
Lady M, a Lady from Mars, who takes an empyrean view of Earth's population problems, occasionally visits this website, see
A community is demographically trapped, if, under present economic and technological constraints, it exceeds: (a) the carrying capacity of its local ecosystem (too many people for the land to support), and (b) there is nowhere for people to go, and (c) the economy produces too few exports to exchange for food and other essentials. What happens then is abject poverty, stunting, starvation, and population-driven violence.
A community is also trapped, if, because its population is increasing, it is expected to be in this unhappy situation before long.
TIME is critically important - a subsistence community exceeding the carrying capacity of its ecosystem, before it reaches replacement fertility (two children only) and before economic development has linked it to the rest of the world.
Most important - for the technical notes on this definition see
PRIMARY MOTHER CARE AND POPULATION, Fully Politicised Definitive Edition
Chapters 2 and 28 discuss demographic entrapment, the rest are obstetrics and family planning.
Cover, Prelims, Dedication, Foreword, Preface Link
Table of contents Link
'The Population Demons' Chapter 29 pdf Link. html link (best)
Ordering Primary Mother Care and Population pdf Link
Do send your comments by email
Maurice King
Honorary Research Fellow
The University of Leeds
5 Ashwood Villas Leeds LS6 2EJ
M.H.King@Leeds.ac.uk
0044 (0)113 2304441 http://www.leeds.ac.uk/demographic.disentrapment
Index 