AIDS and the population of Malawi
Chinese the same word Ta Ji... implies that the whole universe has two sides, good and bad, disaster and opportunity, linked to one another. The same idea is expressed in the proverb "Every cloud has a silver lining". Here, we look at the opportunity.
SUMMARY. Malawi has the informal reputation of being a classical example of demographic entrapment. It is mostly a land of peasant smallholders. Its predicament is this:
Most of this predicament is summarized in this following diagram. It shows what has happened to population and maize yields during the the last 50 years, and what might happen to them in the next 50 years. It also shows that maize consumption per head has been falling.However without AIDS Malawi's population was set to triple by 2050. With AIDS, it is only expected to only rise by 50%. Without AIDS 1-child families would have been necessary immediately. With AIDS, assuming that transmission is is controlled by 2010, and falls to zero by 2050, 2-child families would be sufficient.
A, B, and C, three population projections.D, E, and F, the maize yield increases needed to feed them, assuming that the present inadequate nutritional levels (160 kg/head), are merely maintained. All graphs to the same time scale.
A, population growth without the effect of AIDS (UN medium variant).
B, population growth with the effect of AIDS (US Bureau of Census). This assumes that the infection peaks in 2010, with no further growth in infection after that year, and declines to nil by 2050.
C, population with the effect of AIDS, assuming everyone has 2-child families from 1999 onwards.
D, the maize yields required without the effect of AIDS.
E, the maize yields required with the effect of AIDS. E1, and F1, are the corresponding maize yields required at optimal nutritional levels (250 kg/head).
F, the maize yields required with AIDS and 2-child families.
G, per capita maize consumption 1961-1998 ( extended by recent data).
H, total food energy, surplus or deficit. It will be noted that H is at variance with G, the discrepancy is being looked into. G, is from reference {88}, p26.
I, the percentage change in food availability, total and per capita, using 1970-1974 as the base year.
J, historic maize yields t/ha.
K, Percentage of national food energy requirements as food aid.
L, the 1 t/ha yield level and 2 t/ha yield with agroforestry - see below.
ABSTRACT. Pressure on land in Malawi is already intense. Without the tragedy of AIDS, Malawi's population of 9.8 million was expected to have tripled to 29 million by 2050 (UN, medium variant), and could have eventually quadrupled - famine permitting.With the tragedy of AIDS, which we urge be combated with the utmost vigour, the US Bureau of Census estimate that Malawi's population will only increase by 50% to 15 million by 2050.{34}
Meanwhile, Malawi's carrying capacity is being gravely impaired by the declining soil fertility and soil erosion, that is widespread in Africa. Rapid population growth, ever smaller land holdings, falling maize intakes and increasing malnutrition indicate that Malawi has already exceeded its carrying capacity.
Over the last 40 years, and despite increasing use of fertilizer and improved varieties, the average maize yield has only risen from 1 tonne to the hectare to 1.2 tonnes/ha. Maize consumption is now only 65% of the 250 kg per head which are required.Fertilizer
In some soils artificial fertilizer alone increases yields temporarily, and eventually leaves the soil almost completely infertile.
In other soils fertilizer alone is said to be able to maintain yields indefinitely.
Just what the proportion of these two kinds of soil is in Malawi is uncertain.
Unimproved peasant agriculture with no fertilizer presently gives yields of 1.1 t/ha, with slow deterioration. {89}{33}
Modest fertilizer application at 3/4 of the recommended rate produces yields of 2.7-3 t/ha - with the prospect of the steady deterioration of most soils. {89}Agroforestry
Fertilizer alone is therefore no long term solution. Intensive agroforestry is needed to arrest further soil fertility decline, and hopefully to increase it. There is considerable uncertainly as to what agroforestry could do, and what future sustainable yields might be on a national scale. The most promising method at the present time is under-sowing with the legume Tephrosia, assisted in the longer term by the planting of Faidherbia albida (syn Acacia albida), the whitethorn tree.
One expert {89} reports that this could produce 1.4 t/ha in the second year, and 1.9 t/ha
in the third year.
The combination of agroforestry with fertilizer, however little is beneficial.
The problem with agroforestry is that there are 2.5 million farm families, all of whom have to be instructed individually - a long process. At present only 3% use it.Conclusion. It seems unwise to rely on a nation-wide yield of 2 t/ha and that a a program of drastic fertility reduction aiming at 2-child families is needed.
Stephen Carr {46} formerly of the World Bank, an authority on Malawi, has said that he expect yields in the region of 1 t/ha. Presently, he declines to give an opinion. Buddenhagen {33} expects yields of 1 t/ha. Meanwhile, Trent Bundersen {1} of USAID expects 2 t/ha. andA yield of 2 t/ha would feed the population of 15 million expected in 2050, with a little to spare to improve nutrition. A yield of 1 t/ha would require immediate 2 child families to prevent nutrition deteriorating further.
Some emigration is possible, but is unlikely to be adequate. Nor is it likely that economic development will be fast enough to allow Malawi to buy food on the world market. The current decline in the percentage increase in global grain yields makes reliance on indefinite and increasing food aid unwise.
The Malawian predicament is examined from two perspectives: (1) That of Amartya Sen. It seems that that a famine, if it occurs, will largely be the result of a real food availability decline (FAD), unlike those studied by Sen, {4} in which he argued that there was famine without FAD. (2) The demographic trap first described by Harvey Leibenstein. {5} I conclude that in Leibenstein's terms Malawi is trapped, but are hopeful for disentrapment - provided that entrapment is recognized and that urgent measures are put in hand immediately.
I argue for an urgent programme of 2-child families, for intensive agroforestry, and for massive development aid. Without AIDS Malawi could not be disentrapped, with AIDS it might be. We confront the possibility of famine and argue for a perspective which includes 'sustainability beyond starvation'.
I see disentrapment as the sine qua non for future development. Malawi appears to be only one of a number of countries with similar cross-sectoral problems which span the interests of WHO, FAO, UNFPA, and UNDP.It is axiomatic that, if in a finite planet, the South has to drastically curtail its fertility lest it starve, the North should curtail its resource consumption, particularly of grain and fossil fuel.
INTRODUCTION. A neglected problem in Africa is the failure to confront rising population numbers with falling soil fertility. Hitherto, this has been overcome by bringing more land under cultivation, either locally, or by migration. Should this reach its limits, goods and services can - in theory - be exported, and the foreign exchange so earned used to buy food produced by ecosystems elsewhere in the world. We examine these variables in respect of Malawi. Our starting point is the Situation analysis of Poverty in Malawi produced by the Government of Malawi and the UN agencies in 1993. {2} This is referred to here as 'The SP' - the name by which it is known in Malawi - and has been updated with more recent data as necessary. The SP mostly used data collected in 1987-1988 which is now 10 years old. Population increase meanwhile has worsened most of the indicators it described. The SP was denied the perspective to see a way forward. I try to do this.
ARABLE LAND PER HEAD. Estimates of Malawi's arable land vary {22}. We use those provided by the SP, which found that Malawi had 2.65 million ha of arable land overall, made up of 1.8 million ha in the smallholder sector growing mostly maize, and 0.85 million ha in the estate sector, growing mostly tobacco. In recent years this duality has become increasingly blurred, with estates being split up and some smallholders also growing tobacco at the expense of food crops. Assuming a population of 10 million, this is presently 0.26 ha/person overall, with 0.18 ha/person in smallholder cultivation. In 2050 with a 50% increase in population, holdings will have shrunk to 0.17 and 0.12 ha.A WORKING DEFINITION OF CARRYING CAPACITY. For the purposes of this paper 'carrying capacity' will be considered as applying to humans only, sufficient to provide them with food energy and fuel for cooking. Its importance is increasingly acknowledged in Malawi. Since about 90% of the food energy of Malawians is provided by maize, calculations here are in terms of maize alone. Maize is a relatively new crop in Africa, having replaced the much less productive traditional millets. {32} The increased carrying capacity that maize has provided is now reaching its limit.The SP estimated that 2,200 calories per day are needed to meet minimum calorie requirements. To provide 80% of this requirement about 190 kg of milled maize grain (mgaiwa) need to be eaten each year. Assuming a wastage of 18%, this is equivalent to a maize production of 232 kg per person per year. Under smallholder processing methods where maize is processed and consumed as the more refined ufa (pounded grain), which most people prefer, the average per capita maize production may need to be as high as 270-310 kg, because processing losses can be as high as 30-40%. In view of the hard physical work which most people do, optimum requirements could be as high as 3,000 cal. As a round figure I assume a requirement of 250 kg per head. This needs to be compared with 200 kg of grain presently eaten in India, 470 kg in the EEC, and 900 kg in the USA, the latter largely as animal products.
Figure 1 shows that during the last 30 years annual maize yields in Malawi have varied widely. During this time they have risen 200 kg and now average 1.2 t/ha. This represents 161 kg per head, or 65% of the 250 kg requirement. At the round figure of 1 t /ha and 250 kg per head, Malawi's present carrying capacity is 4 people/ha.
FUELWOOD. Maize needs cooking, so fuel wood is an important aspect of carrying capacity. Bundersen and Hayes concluded that"... Malawi's natural forests will all but disappear in 25 years, unless enormous efforts are made to plant more trees, and to identify practical energy-saving alternatives". {1}THE MALAWIAN ECOSYSTEM. Rainfall variability. Unlike other highly populated countries, such as Rwanda, which has almost continuous rains, Malawi has a single rainfall of up to five months, mostly in a torrent during January and February. Rainfall, and therefore harvests, have recently become increasingly variable {8} in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 'apparent' plenty in some years (1967, 1993, 1999) and real shortage in others (1992) - 'apparent' because food security is masked by the lack of entitlement - see below. Malawi must therefore carry large end of season stocks, or be assured of food aid where necessary.
LAND DEGRADATION has become acute. {1} Soil erosion averages 20 t/ha and reaches 50 t/ha in some areas. {23} "Loss of topsoil has enormous costs to the economy, agriculture, and the environment, representing 1 to 5% of GDP from current production alone {1} {23}
RESTORING AND MAINTAINING SOIL FERTILITY. The main determinant of crop yields, apart from rain, is the fertility of the soil. In tropical soils this is mostly determined by the quantity of organic matter (humus) present. This retains nutrients, particularly nitrogen, it lets roots penetrate, and it also allows water to percolate, instead of running off. Without enough organic matter soil loses its fertility. {7} Organic matter is dynamic. Some is added each year by decaying roots and leaves. Some is oxidized to carbon dioxide and returned to the air. Low soil temperatures favour its retention, hence the rich dark quality of temperate soils. High soil temperatures favour its oxidation, hence the dry red sandy quality of the laterite soils, so common in the tropics. Unfortunately, land under maize alone, as under most methods of cultivation in the tropics, progressively loses its organic matter - and its fertility. Under natural conditions, the organic matter of the soil is preserved by the roots and leaves of trees. The thrust of tropical agriculture has thus to be to try to keep the organic matter in the soil - or to replace it if it has already been lost. Trees can be used in several ways.
'Slash-and-burn' cultivation ('Chitemene'). Malawi has several agro-ecological zones, the major one being Brachystegia miombo woodland interspersed with Acacia-combretum wooded savannah. The most ecologically sustainable way to farm such an ecosystem with an acidic soil and low inherent fertility is by 'slash and burn', which is the way it was farmed for millennia before colonial period. Trees were cut down, and their branches gathered in an area about a tenth the size, after which they were burnt. Crops were then planted in the ashes. When soil fertility had fallen after about 4 years, trees in another area were burnt, and the previous 'garden' left to regenerate. Thirty years later, when the trees in the first 'garden' had restored the fertility of the soil, they could be burnt again, and the cycle continued indefinitely. {9} As population pressure on such an ecosystem increases, fallow periods become shorter, and soil fertility falls.
The limitations of slash-and-burn cultivation are that it can only support 0.02-0.04 persons to the hectare. {9} Such cultivation thus impossible with population densities which even in 1987 had reached 2.3 to 4.6 persons per hectare in Malawi's Southern province. {2} As a result, there is no longer any true chitimene cultivation in Malawi. 'Gardens' are now in increasingly permanent cultivation, with progressively less fallow, commonly none, and with declining fertility.
'Fundikila' is a Zambian method of green manuring the same type of ecosystem, which is said to be able to support 0.2-0.4 persons/ha - 10 times more than chitimene - and which may be sustainable {17}.
HOPES FOR AGRO-FORESTRY. This is a method of growing crops with leguminous trees or shrubs on the same plot, so that their roots, stems and leaves can put the organic matter back into the soil. Legumes also fix their own nitrogen, with some to spare for the crops. In Malawi sustainable carrying capacity for man is thus critically dependant on the yields produced by agroforestry.
Currently, Malawi's best hopes are: (1) Tephrosia , a shrub, interplanted with maize in a one or two year cycle. (2) Faidherbia albida (syn Acacia albida), the whitethorn tree. {1} Some traditional communities have long realized that crop yields are greater under this tree. Faidherbia has the great advantage that it loses its leaves during the wet season, which is just when plants underneath it are growing, and benefit most from the nitrogen rich soil near its trunk.
LIMITS TO AGRO-FORESTRY. Expert opinion varies as to what agroforestry might do, sustainably on a national scale. Trent Bunderson (USAID) suggests 2 t/ha without added fertilizer. {1} Stephen Carr (formerly of the World Bank) suggests that, whereas 700 kg is likely to be the sustainable yield with present unimproved methods, agroforestry with improved crop rotations of maize, soya bean and pigeon pea, could raise them to 1.2 tonnes, and that with fertilizer yields could reach 2.5 tonnes sustainably. Carr is supported by Buddenhagen, who points out that without agro-forestry"... in the tropics the weathering of minerals and the biological fixation of nitrogen, enable at most yields of 1 t/ha on a sustainable basis." "Loss of soil through erosion which is particularly common in soils cultivated with annual crops in the upland tropics reduces this level considerably".. For the purposes of this paper, we consider population in relation to yields of 1 t/ha, and 2 t/ha - the 'one and two tonne targets'. Much higher yields can be obtained with fertilizer temporarily. Malawian soil and rainfall makes it impossible to achieve the the 10 t/ha unsustainable yields that are occasionally possible in Zimbabwe and more often elsewhere.
Agro-forestry has problems. There are problems. It has taken 10 years to reach the present 5% uptake of agroforestry methods. Their universal application may need 40-50 years. Some systems, particularly Faidherbia albida trees take 5 years to start to increase yields, and require 20 years to reach optimum usefulness, whereas the need for increased productivity is immediate. The widespread adoption of agroforestry will be highly dependant on a large and committed force of agricultural extension workers. At present this cadre is both dispirited and limited, as well as suffering acute logistic and transport problems, among which is a lack of bicycles. The SP found one extension worker to 1000 smallholders, with services and methods were largely aimed at the larger holdings, and which were inadequately tailored to local conditions. Great concern and commitment will be needed in the senior levels of Government, and by the international community.
FERTILIZER. Nitrogenous fertilizer can make up temporarily for loss of soil fertility, until such time as the natural organic matter of the soil has been largely lost. In most agricultural systems in Africa nutrient loss far exceeds nutrient input. {33} If maize, for example, is grown continuously with no fallow, soil fertility progressively falls due to loss of organic matter. The result is that in many 'gardens' maize yields have now fallen to 500 kg/ha or less. In the short term only, falling natural fertility can be compensated for by added fertilizer, commonly at the rate of 50-100 kg/ha of nitrogen, sometimes up to 400 kg. The attempt to overcome loss of organic matter by adding progressively more fertilizer allows almost all the organic matter in the soil to oxidize away. The application of fertilizer alone eventually makes the soil almost completely infertile. Fertilizer, alone, even were it affordable, is thus no long term solution. It is however, a short term solution - until the fertility of the soil has been largely destroyed.
To increase yields, fertilizer can be applied with agroforestry. Since yields and sustainability are competing objectives, they need to be balanced. Unfortunately, no data are available as to how much fertilizer can be added without destroying the sustainability objective of the agroforestry.
In Malawi fertilizer has to be imported by rail and truck, thus greatly increasing its cost. The SP found that 70 % of farmers could not afford it. If fertilizer is to be used, it has to be heavily subsidized. Policies on subsidizing fertilizer have varied considerably in the past. Subsidized fertilizer and seeds for smallholders were discontinued in 1996, on the advice of the World Bank, {17} {18} but were reintroduced in 1998 as part of a highly successful 'starter pack programme' of free fertilizer and hybrid maize, which, thanks to good rains, produced the record yield of 1.7 kg/ha that year. The international community will therefore have to choose between subsidizing grain imports, assuming that grain is available at affordable prices on the international market, and subsidizing fertilizer - or letting Malawi starve. With due allowance for growing conditions, etc. an aid dollar given as fertilizer can be worth three, given as maize. In neighbouring Zambia the removal of the subsidy on fertilizer is forcing farmers to return to the chitimene and fundikila systems, even though they have already outgrown their sustainable carrying capacity. {9} Population densities make this impossible in Malawi. Hybrid maize has higher yields but requires either agroforestry or fertilizer.
LAND HOLDINGS. The SP estimated that 1 ha was the smallest holding that would provide the bare minimum food requirements for the average household of 5 people, yet more than half all smallholders had a mean holding of 0.55 ha. {2} In the 10 years since the SP data were collected, population growth at 1.97% per year {28} will have reduced the mean holding of 0.55 ha to 0.43 ha, or 516 kg of maize at current yields - for a household of 5.
Over one quarter of the smallholders cultivated less than 0.5 ha, half of them cultivated less than 1 ha, and three quarters of them cultivated less than 1.5 ha. {2} The proportion of smallholders cultivating 2 ha or more had dropped from 71% in 68/69 to 13% in 87/88 - about 20 years. It is not surprising therefore that the smallest smallholders have to depend on casual labour whenever they can, and are so malnourished.
Irrigation. Malawi has 290,000 ha of irrigable land of which only 25,000 are presently irrigated. {44} Although the area which could be irrigated represents only 3% of all the arable area in Malawi, it must be made use of.
NUTRITION. Malnutrition as an indicator of carrying capacity surpassed. Malawi's overall health indicators are largely determined by those of its smallholders. Their health is much influenced by whether they have enough to eat. Current production is only 161 kg head, having declined from 204 kg in 1970 to 161 kg in 1998. {2}60% of the population are unable to meet their basic daily nutritional requirements. {24} The harvest normally begins in April, but many households run out of home grown food within 3 months. They therefore depend on the exchange of labour, and other coping mechanisms to survive until the next harvest. {24}
That food intakes are not nearly enough is reflected in the level of childhood malnutrition. In 1992 half of all children under 5 years were stunted, and a quarter of them severely so, with no improvement on the situation 10 years previously. {2} In 1998 UNICEF found 48% stunted and 30% underweight. The rate of wasting, which was 4.5% in 1992 had risen to 7% in 1995.{38} Malawi's under fives mortality, to which malnutrition contributes greatly, is 230 per thousand and is exceeded only by Rwanda, malnutrition playing a large part.
WHAT IS MALAWI'S CARRYING CAPACITY? Malawi's actual carrying capacity depends on several variables which are only partly known and for which estimates have to be made: They include: The actual yields from agroforestry on a national scale. The willingness of the donor community to provide Malawi with heavily subsidized fertilizer in increasing quantity indefinitely. The ability of all farmers, particularly smallholders to use agroforestry intensively. The levels of chronic malnutrition that are to be tolerated. The time frame to be considered. For example, the rehabilitation of all eroded land, perhaps over a millennium, could be expected to give Malawi a greatly increased carrying capacity.
If all arable land in Malawi is used for maize at a yield of 1 t/ha, its carrying capacity would be 10.6 million. If only land in the smallholder grew maize, Malawi's carrying capacity would be 7.2 million. Corresponding figures at 2 t/ha brings these figures to 21.2 and 14.4 million. These figures assume that Malawi will not be provided with free fertilizer on an adequate scale indefinitely. They also assume adequate nutrition (250 kg of maize per head), rather than the present 160 kg.
Must Malawi feed itself, or will the international community feed it indefinitely? Malawi has been in need of food aid intermittently for many years. In 1996 FAO estimated that Malawi's average annual food deficit would increase substantially. {24} The prospects for indefinite food aid are far from certain. {ref}Malawi will not be the only recipient of grain, in that Sri Lanka, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc., with per capita arable areas of 0.02-0.06 ha, {6} are already importing 70% of their grain. {6} Other major grain importers are likely to include China, Bangladesh and Pakistan. We therefore conclude that Malawi would be most unwise to expect the international community to provide it with grain indefinitely. Malawi must therefore expect to feed itself, or expect famine.
MALAWI FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF AMARTYA SEN. Sen described famines in which he argued that there was food available in the community, and yet that there was famine - famine without food availability decline - 'famine without FAD'. {4} In the Great Bengal Famine, for example, he found that there had been rice in the stores of the merchants, but because its price had risen, the landless rice-huskers, barbers and rickshaw pullers could no longer afford it and starved - they lacked the 'entitlement', which was usually the cash to buy it. Their equivalent in Malawi are the estate tenants, the petty traders, the junior civil servants, and those who are supported by cash from their relatives.
In Malawi there is at present little overt famine, but there is chronic malnutrition. SP found 60% of all households were food insecure, in spite of there often being surpluses in good years which were marketed abroad through ADMARC (the parastatal marketing board) which gave the impression that the country was self sufficient and food secure. There was therefor 'malnutrition without FAD'.
Food insecurity (and therefore potential vulnerability to famine), was particularly common in smallholders with less than 1 ha, estate workers and tenants, low income urban dwellers, and woman-headed households and their children. The three major causes of this insecurity were low agricultural productivity (the result of small gardens and low yields), limited opportunities for offer employment, and low levels of labour incomes - in effect the lack of entitlement to food.Periodic famine with FAD, as a result of drought, has been endemic in Africa, but has been relieved in recent years by food aid. Malawi has had actual or potential famine about every 15 years - 1949, 1964, 1981-83, and 93-94. Should overt famine come to Malawi again, it will most probably be the result of drought, and small land-holdings combined with low carrying capacity (low maize yields) and lack of food aid. If so, there will be famine with FAD among smallholders who grow their food, and a measure of famine without FAD in those who buy it - there will still be some food in some shops, but at prices that deprive wage-earners of their entitlement to it. It seems therefore that famine with and without FAD can occur in different sections of the community at the same time. Since Dyson observes that "There is a misleading impression in much of the literature that a sizeable proportion of modern famines do not involve a food availability decline (FAD)..." {8} (Footnote 21 page 74) If so, the famine that might come to Malawi in future might indeed be the general case - most, or even perhaps all famines, are a mixture of famine with and without FAD, in different sections of the community in varying proportions.
The distinction is further blurred by the fact that the most disadvantaged smallholders (who grow most of their own food and can therefore expect famine with FAD), also expect to buy some of their food with cash from casual labour. In the process they are therefore exposed to famine without FAD.
Malawi's FAD predicament is made worse by the increasing variability of its rainfall and its harvests, with increasingly severe years of glut and scarcity. The 1999 harvest was exceptionally good. The government's granaries rapidly filled, it forbade the export of maize, so its price collapsed. The maize that could not be stored rotted.
MALAWI FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HARVEY LEIBENSTEIN. The SP suggested no solution to the 'situation of poverty' that it analysed, because the concept of demographic entrapment as distinct from poverty, although it had been described by Harvey Leibenstein in 1954, was not part of UN thinking at that time, nor were the necessary measures for disentrapment. We do not discuss the controversies over this term since Leibenstein introduced it, nor how it came to have its modern definition which is that: A community is demographically trapped if its population has exceeded, or is projected to exceed, the carrying capacity of its ecosystem, and its opportunities for migration, and the ability of its economy to produce sufficient goods and services which it can exchange for food and other essential imports. When this happens if faces famine or violence. {13}
The SP was an analysis of poverty, and did not see beyond it. Poverty and entrapment are not synonymous. To be poor is not necessarily to be trapped. To live in a trapped community is not necessarily to be trapped oneself, since if one from the elite, one can emigrate. To be poor, and for one's community to be trapped (with gardens too small to feed one's family, no imported food, and nowhere to go) makes one's poverty worse. Entrapment, where it exists, is thus an addition to the complex of factors that constitute poverty.
With the land-holdings, maize yields, and levels of malnutrition described above, it is clear that, with present agricultural methods, Malawi already has exceeded its present carrying capacity. Has it also exceeded the other variables that determine entrapment?
Theoretically, there are four methods of disentrapment. (1) To increase carrying capacity - as described above. (2) To promote migration. (3) To develop the economy sufficiently to provide exports that can be exchanged for the essential imports, especially food. (4) To reduce fertility in order to control population. Ideally, it would be necessary to make the most of all of these methods in order to design a coherent 'disentrapment programme'. There are however other variables. One of these, although implicit in the definition, is not formally part of it. It is that some epidemic or catastrophe might render the need for disentrapment unnecessary. An ever present possibility is the return of smallpox to an unvaccinated community, {14} with a mortality of perhaps 30%. Another is an influenza pandemic with a high mortality. The epidemic Malawi already has is AIDS.
What opportunity is there for emigration? Malawi has one of the highest population densities in Africa. This high density was originally the result of people having fled from the raids of the Ngoni in Zambia, and from the Portuguese administration in Mozambique. Meanwhile population has been increasing in the Northern Zambia to the extent that population densities are now well above the carrying capacity of the traditional chitimene and fundikila systems. {9} Opportunities for migration to Zambia are therefore limited. This may also be true for Mozambique. Apart from some unused land in the estates sector, there is little scope for migration within Malawi.
Nevertheless, there is considerable propensity for migration in the region. Malawi recently accepted a million temporary migrants from Mozambique. There is a long history of Malawians migrating to Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Substantial migration therefore remains a possibility. One of the traditional responses to famine was to 'walk ones way out of it', and this may happen again. However, many of the potential recipient areas for migration are only a little less densely populated than is Malawi. Even so, it is remarkable, considering the high level of malnutrition, that more migration is not already taking place. By preventing the stimulation to migration of grave starvation among adults, food aid may be preventing it.
Massive emigration, or massive food imports? There has already been some migration from Africa to the North, and there should be more. However, Africa's population is presently 784 million, it is in increasing food deficit, as shown in the figure, and its nutritional levels are falling in many areas. Without AIDS its population was expected to have quadrupled to 3 billion. With AIDS its future population is uncertain. It would seem possible however that there will be of the order of not less than a billion people, requiring, either indefinite food aid in a world of declining per capita grain and grain shortfall, or emigration. There may also be not less than another half billion from Asia in the same situation. India alone is expected to increase by half a billion, its per capita grain is gently falling, and water is an even greater constraint than land. The possibility of Malawi being able to emigrate the 5 million population increase expected by 2050 cannot therefore be relied on. [Figures provisional]
Can Malawi earn the necessary food imports? Malawi has a dualistic economy with a modern/formal sector accounting for only 10% of employment, and mostly geared to the export of tobacco, the market for which is expected to shrink. The most lucrative alternatives are said to be pigeon peas and soya beans, with considerable uncertainty as to whether they will be as profitable as tobacco.
It is sometimes assumed that that the poorest communities of Africa will, should and can, develop themselves out of their entrapment. The difficulty is that, since development in the modern sense barely began 100 years ago, they cannot develop with sufficient speed to compensate for the population growth that results from mothers having six children - especially when so many of the ablest members of society who should be developing them, either emigrate to the North, or have died of AIDS. Malawi will develop, but it cannot develop fast enough to compensate for its present population growth - see below.
Malawi is landlocked. Although the Shire river is navigable up to Chickwawa, within 60 km of Blantyre, there are formidable difficulties in the way of it developing the manufacturing economy that would be needed to sustain a major port. The petrochemical cheap energy age is about to end, with extraction rates of oil expected to fall after 2010. {16} Malawi will miss out most of the infrastructure of this age, in the sense of having skyscrapers and flyovers like Miami. Hopefully, it will converge with much of the North in a lower population density, lower energy use 'sustainable lifestyle information age'
Malawi's debts must be cancelled - it spends about twice as much on servicing these as it does on social services. {2} This is a hugely important step, but it is not sufficient by itself for disentrapment. This is mostly a matter of people, land, and its carrying capacity. It seems likely that, as an inevitable consequence of history, Malawi will remain dependant on development aid for the foreseeable future.
WHAT IS AIDS GOING TO DO TO POPULATION GROWTH? What is AIDS doing to population growth? The 1997 census found Malawi's population to be 7.9 million, excluding refugees from Mozambique. The 1998 census was expected to be 11.4 million. {52} In the event it turned out to be 9.8 million - a deficit of 1.6 million. This deficit is attributed to AIDS.The UN population Division {28}, and the US Bureau of Census {34} have both made projections which account for the future effect of AIDS. Neither expect the population of Malawi to fall. Nevertheless, forecasts as to what AIDS might do to population have already been proved wrong once. For example, SP concluded that "...Under the worst scenario of the pandemic, the annual population growth rate will slow down from 3.3 to 2.1% per year..." {2} Recently, the US Bureau of Census has revised it downwards to 0.7% in 2010. {34} Recent surveys {51} suggest that AIDS prevalence has peaked in Malawi. In making its projections, the Bureau assumes this, and also assumes that infection will remain at the same level until 2010.
Stover and Way {21} have analysed the way in which the projections made by the UN Population Division and the US Bureau of Census differ. They use different methods, assumptions and models, with no means of deciding which is correct. There are also grave deficiencies in the data on which both are based. They found that assumptions about fertility and non-AIDS mortality have little effect compared with the differences in assumptions about the future course of AIDS. We do not discuss these models further, except to stress their uncertainty and to quote Zaba and Gregson {15} who observe that there is "... a feeling in some quarters that the AIDS mortality crisis has dampened population growth to such an extent that fertility regulation is no longer a priority matter. The latter is a dangerous misconception (our italics). Population growth will certainly be curtailed (although in most African countries it will still continue at such a rate that problems of under-employment and natural resource shortages will remain)..." One of the natural resource shortages is lack of carrying capacity.
How far will AIDS make 'population control' unnecessary? By population control is meant any more radical measures to reduce fertility than are currently being taken, and especially the message by Malawians to Malawians: "If we don't reduce our fertility, we can expect to starve"
AIDS and entrapment interact. Entrapment is completely taboo. Fortunately, the taboo on AIDS has now gone in Malawi, and in the current National Strategic Plan AIDS is being combated vigorously from the President downwards. Should however AIDS not be controlled, it will reduce population growth and reduce entrapment. If entrapment is not controlled, it will increase poverty, which will increase the spread of AIDS.
There are several alternatives:
(1) "Business as usual" which is to continue to taboo entrapment totally and AIDS partially.
(2) To confront AIDS radically, while continuing to taboo entrapment, in the (private) awareness that success in AIDS control will make entrapment worse.
(3) To address both radically, knowing that the more successful AIDS control is, the more radical will population control will have to be, and only being able to guess, from year to year (a) how successful AIDS control is going to be, (b) how AIDS is going to affect population growth, and (c) how successful agroforestry will be, and therefore what Malawi's carrying capacity will be.
I urge that AIDS be controlled with the utmost vigour as part of the general programme for reproductive health. We therefore press for alternative (3), and argue strongly that the dilemma be placed before the public in Malawi and the international community, in the most easily understood terms. A particularly difficult decision is the degree of urgency with which population needs to be controlled. By 1998 Malawi's total fertility had fallen to 5.6, and its growth rate to 1.7%. {34}
Without AIDS and with the prospect of the population tripling by 2050, even the most urgent population control would have been unlikely to have been effective. Demographic momentum is the population growth inherent in a young population. Malawi's demographic momentum would have been be about two, in that if all its mothers were to have had two children only from now on (strictly 2.1 children), its population would have still doubled before eventually levelling off. 1-child families would therefor have been urgently necessary immediately. Even with 1-child families its population would have increased for a generation before falling.
With AIDS Malawi's population is projected to be 15 million in 2050. {34} Malawi's demographic momentum with AIDS is now gently negative, in that instant 2-child families would keep its population within the 8-9.5 million range until 2050, there being a very slow fall until 2028 and a very small rise after that. {48} Instant 1-child families would make it fall more steeply and keep it falling.
It would appear therefore that the tragedy of AIDS is largely disentrapping Malawi, and making it possible to think about how it might be disentrapped completely.
Population control will not be necessary if : (i) the course of the HIV epidemic and its effect on population has been correctly estimated, and (ii) the 2 t/ha agroforestry yield is met. Otherwise, population control will be necessary if Malawi is not going to starve, since indefinite food aid cannot be relied on.
I think that the 2 t/ha target is not going to be met sufficiently widely and that the message to the community should be immediate 2-child families, with the possible or probable need for 1-child families later,if fertility does not immediately start falling sharply, and AIDS is controlled earlier. In practice a 2-child policy is unlikely to be fully effective, so that the 2050 population would probably be in the range of, say, 11- 13 million - continued food aid permitting. We argue that the whole predicament be made plain to the public, and projections and messages updated annually, with the prospect of starvation if fertility is not adequately controlled.
Even 1-child families are not as impossible as they might seem. They were discussed with the Malawian head of a major family planning organization. "1-child families! Of course!, she replied! But for the moment, we say "Two is good, three is reasonable, four is too much. And if you already have six, seven or eight... or thirteen... STOP!" Her staff seem to be of much the same opinion. So the dialogue on 1-child families can at least be opened in Malawi. It can also be opened in Uganda {27} It would be easier in the context of a 1-child world ("...we are all in it together..."), and may only be possible in such a context, the argument being that if any community is to be counselled to reduce its fertility to 1-child, we all should. {13}
With an infant mortality of 130 per thousand {34} and the need to assure every family of one surviving child, it will be necessary to reduce childhood mortality, and increase child survival. It will also be necessary to use reversible methods of contraception until that child has passed the dangerous years of childhood and is at least five years old.There has been a woeful lack of urgency over family planning, both in the government and the donor community. As a result of the neglect of family planning during the Banda administration, Malawi's CPR (contraceptive prevalence rate) was 7% in 1992.{2} This has probably now risen to 20% or more. {43} There are huge logistic problems in the way of complete coverage. The major method is likely to be tubal ligation, once a mother has achieved her desired family size. The difficulty of providing this on the required scale are likely to make it necessary to use the quinacrine method of tubal occlusion. Many mothers would like to use injectable contraceptives, but cannot get them.
A disentrapment programme - the key to future development. Once the UN agencies recognize entrapment, the next steps follow logically - entrapment and disentrapment must be thoroughly discussed by all Malawians, right down to the humblest villager - especially the reason for 2-child families as an alternative to starvation. The first call on every aid dollar must be to see that those who want family planning can get it as soon as possible. Malawi's debts must be cancelled. There must be massive and continuing development aid, and the assurance of food aid and fertilizer, at least in the medium term. There is also need for massive help with education - the present state of both primary and secondary education is dire indeed, {2} as indeed is the poverty of all government employees.
2-child families will cause great changes in village society, particularly an ageing community. Villagers will have to care for one another, as indeed they presently do. Should they prefer famine, they will have been given the choice. If the experts (see box) are correct, and they may be, Malawian villagers are the best people to solve their own problems - if they are given the means to do so.
A perspective beyond famine. Famine is inherent in the human condition, not least in Africa, and it is only recently that it has been considered preventable, as in this paper. However, as will have become clear, it will not have been prevented unless some vigorous steps are taken immediately. If they are not taken, or are inadequate, there will be a time of famine, probably in the medium term. Tragically, this can be expected to provide some temporary disentrapment. Had these steps been taken in the 1950s when Leibenstein wrote, or more practically, in the 1960s with the coming of the IUCD (intrauterine contraceptive device) and the Pill, disentrapment would have been easier. Should disentrapment fail and famine come, it is important that the 'sustainability /carrying capacity perspective' outlined her should become part of the Malawian culture, so that famine can be prevented in the longer term. This perspective should be part of of the world culture also, so that famine can eventually be prevented world-wide as one of humanity's ultimate goals.
Much depends on how soon the UN agencies recognize entrapment, and with it the need for disentrapment - this is the sine qua non for effective action. It is the perspective that SP was denied.
It is not the purpose of this paper to discuss the implications which the drastic reductions in fertility necessary in the South, has for Northern lifestyles and resource consumption, since this has been done elsewhere, {13} and on this website.
