Demographic disentrapment*
Maurice King see
Honorary Research Fellow, University of Leeds
Do come back to me with your e-mails: M.H.King@leeds.ac.uk
For the open letters to Sir Bob Geldof, and the Comission for Africa, see
Most people seem to understand instinctively what is meant by the term "demographic entrapment" and don't need a definition. The term "disentrapment", which is what to do about it, was missing and had to be invented.
The disturbing fact that large parts of middle Africa, and perhaps even most of it, are demographically trapped is totally taboo to demographers, to development economists and to the UN agencies - who never mention it, and who try to forget that it ends in starvation and violence!
To recognise that demographic entrapment unfortunately does exist radically alters one's view the world, and particularly of Africa, since - if the parts of the South have to reduce their fertility, if necessary to one child only, to avoid starvation and violence, the North will be expected to reduce its resource consumption - and its contribution to global warming!! (The argument of Demon/Angel 3) see.
To recognise that demographic entrapment does exist requires a "paradadigm shift" in ones view of the world in the true Kuhnian and sense of that term. We are now facing a "clash of paradigms" - the paradigm that entrapment does exist, versus the paradigm that it doesn't.see
When paradigms have clashed in the past, and there are some excellent historical examples, they have usually done so as the clash of personalities - the person clinging on to the old paradigm, fighting desperately to uphold it against the person bringing in the new one - and neither protagonist ever changing his mind!.
I find myself in the unhappy position of trying to bring in the new paradigm, while Sir Richard Jolly, Professor Emeritus in the Institute of Development Studies in the University of Sussex, finds himself in the even less happy position of trying to defend the old one. As to where our arguments have got to at present, see. For his earlier arguments see and see.
Why then is entrapment so taboo? For at least 25 reasons which are called its "Demons", following the passage in St Mark "There are many Demons !" For example, severe demographic entrapment may require 1-child families, as in China. Their many problems are Demon 6 - are they better or worse than starvation and violence? The Chinese thought they were better.
To recognise entrapment, and shift ones paradigm, requires that one overcomes all 25 Demons in oneself simultaneously!, or is at least prepared to discuss them. This requires great mental effort, great compassion for the trapped, and a great love for the world, particularly Africa.
For the index (presently rather out of date), see.For the basic thesis and the terms used see.
The taboo on demographic entrapment is the most extreme example of the so-called "Hardinian taboo" whereby we humans taboo our population problems see.
For An Alternative Commission for Africa, see
For Demons in general see.
For the racist Demon 23, see and see
For Demon 21 - a key Demon - in great detail see, in less detail see.
For the entrampent of Africa as a whole, see of Rwanda, see, for North Kivu see, for Vanga see. For Vanga in French see
For Genu robustum ("bloody good knee") see
For Figure 'X' see
For the 'The Population policy lockstep' see
For "end-stage of the child survival revolution" see
For The Lancet being editorially corrupt see
For Unicef and "child survivalism" see.
For Malthus see
For "Global warming scares me stiff !!" see
For Andrew Green rallies to Sir Richard's support, see
There is a book on this website called Primary Mother Care and Population see
Lady M, a Lady from Mars, who takes an empyrean view of Earth's population problems, occasionally visits this website, see
A community is demographically trapped, if, under present economic and technological constraints, it exceeds: (a) the carrying capacity of its local ecosystem (too many people for the land to support), and (b) there is nowhere for people to go, and (c) the economy produces too few exports to exchange for food and other essentials. What happens then is abject poverty, stunting, starvation, and population-driven violence.
A community is also trapped, if, because its population is increasing, it is expected to be in this unhappy situation before long.
TIME is critically important - a subsistence community exceeding the carrying capacity of its ecosystem, before it reaches replacement fertility (two children only) and before economic development has linked it to the rest of the world.
Most important - for the technical notes on this definition see
PRIMARY MOTHER CARE AND POPULATION, Fully Politicised Definitive Edition
Chapters 2 and 28 discuss demographic entrapment, the rest are obstetrics and family planning.
Cover, Prelims, Dedication, Foreword, Preface Link
Table of contents Link
'The Population Demons' Chapter 29 pdf Link. html link (best)
Ordering Primary Mother Care and Population pdf Link
Do send your comments by email
Maurice King
Honorary Research Fellow
The University of Leeds
5 Ashwood Villas Leeds LS6 2EJ
M.H.King@Leeds.ac.uk
0044 (0)113 2304441 http://www.leeds.ac.uk/demographic.disentrapment
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Index