Talk hosted by the Yorkshire Local Centre of the Royal Meteorological Society
Speaker: Nick Silkstone, Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Met Office
Winter 2019/2020 was exceptionally mild and wet in the UK, and with record-breaking seasonal temperatures in parts of northwest Europe and Russia.
Can we predict such an unusual seasonal event like this?
While Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models have vastly improved performance at shorter lead times, they invariably struggle between extended medium range (>1 week) and the seasonal period: this remains one of the toughest challenges in forecasting.
In operational weather forecasting we attempt to use global teleconnections to help add detail, context and confidence to forecasts for this extended period. Prior to winter 2019/2020, several such teleconnections strongly suggested a milder, wetter winter than average, which agreed with NWP and added confidence to the winter seasonal forecast.
The talk aims to first answer the question what is a teleconnection? and then delve into how we began using these to aid the formulation and confidence of extended medium range and seasonal forecasts at the Met Office.
Registration is required for this event, in order to receive instructions for joining by Demio.
This will be a 30-minute talk followed by a 10-minute Q&A. The meeting will open at 6.50pm for attendees to join and the event will start promptly at 7pm. Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org with any queries.