Quantitative Risk Assessment in Fire Safety
- with Dr David Charters (E & F N Spon), 2011.
The Economics of Fire Protection (E & F N Spon),
Evaluation of Fire Safety (John
Wiley), 2004 - Co-author
CONTRIBUTION OF CHAPTERS TO BOOKS
The SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering (The
National Fire Protection Association, USA). Three Chapters to the First
Edition (1988), Five Chapters to the Second Edition (1995), Three
Chapters to the Third Edition (2002) and Three Chapters to the Fourth
BOOKS IN PREPARATION
Statistics, Probability and Reliability for Fire
Protection Engineers (E & F N Spon) - to be
published in 2012.
LIST OF RESEARCH PAPERS, REPORTS AND NOTES
1. Analysis of covariance for the split-plot
design: average variances, (1964). Biometrics, 20, 1, 204-206.
2. The Poisson Process and fire loss distribution,
(1969). Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, 43, 2,
3. Extreme Value Theory and large fire losses,
(1974). Astin Bulletin. Vol VII, Pt 3, 293-310.
4. Extreme Order Statistics in large samples from
exponential type distributions and their application to fire loss,
(1975). Statistical Distributions in Scientific Work, Vol 2, 355-367 (Eds). G P Patil et al, D Reidel Publishing Company,
5. Factors affecting fire loss - multiple
regression models with extreme values, (1975) Astin Bulletin, Vol
VIII, Pt 2, 229-241.
6. Fire loss data and the theory of extreme values,
(1975). Policy Holder Insurance Journal, 16 May 1975, 1018-1019.
7. Extreme Value Theory and fire insurance, (1976).
Transactions of the 20th International Congress of
Actuaries, Tokyo, Oct-Nov 1976, Vol 4, 695-707 and Vol 5, 224-226.
8. Statistical methods in risk evaluation,
(1979/80). Fire Safety Journal, 2, 125-145.
9. Extreme Value Theory and earthquake insurance,
(1980). Transactions of the 21st International Congress of Actuaries,
Zurich and Lausanne, June 1980, Vol 1, 337-353 and Vol S, 198-199.
10. Properties of Extreme Order Statistics and
their application to fire losses and earthquake magnitudes, (1981).
Statistical Distributions in Scientific Work, Vol 6, 351-366 (Eds) C-Taillie
et al. D Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland.
11. Properties of Extreme Order Statistics and
their application to fire protection and insurance problems, (1982).
Fire Safety Journal, 5, 59-76.
12. Economic value of automatic detectors, (1981).
Fire Engineers Journal June/Sept 1981, 36-37.
13. A review of mathematical models for assessing
fire risk, (1982). Fire Prevention, May 1982, 28-32.
14. Trade-offs between sprinklers and fire
resistance. Fire, October 1982, 211-212 (Corrections in Fire, November
1982, 283). Reduced and modified version published in the Architect's
Journal, 15 September 1982, 101-103.
15. Cost effectiveness of sprinklers. BRE Symposium
on Cost Effectiveness and Fire Protection, October 1974.
16. Application of extreme value theory to fire
statistics. Short course on Appraisal and Measurement of Fire Safety.
University of Edinburgh, October 1978.
17. Extreme Order Theory and Third Party Motor
Insurance. 15th Astin Colloquium, Loen, Norway, June 1981.
18. Stochastic Modelling of Fire Growth. Conseil
International du Batiment, _ Commission W14 Workshop on Mathematical
Modelling of Fire Growth, Paris, July 1981. (Building Research
Establishment Note N184/84).
19. Approximate values for the moments of extreme
order statistics in large samples. Statistical Extremes and
Applications, 563-578, (Ed), J Tiago De Oliveira. D Reidel Publishing
Company, Dordrecht, Holland, 1984.
20. Estimation of parameters of extreme order
distributions of exponential type parents. Statistical Extremes and
Applications, 579-588 (Ed), J Tiago De Oliveira. D Reidel Publishing
Company, Dordrecht, Holland, 1984.
21. The Interaction between Fire Protection and
Insurance. Proceedings of BVD Seminar on Fire Prevention Concepts.
Zurich, 13 March 1984.
22. Probability Modelling. Seminar on Cost
Effective Approach to Fire Safety, LIFE 84, Olympia, London, April
23. Stochastic Modelling of Fire Growth. ASTM STP
882, 1985, 122-144. American Society for Testing and Materials,
24. The Human Aspects of Fires in Buildings -
Review of Research in the United Kingdom. ASTM STP 882, 1985, 386-422.
American Society for Testing and Materials, Philadelphia.
25. Economic Aspects of Fire. International
Conference on Flammability, University of Surrey, Guildford, England,
26-28 March 1985. Conference Workbook, 38 45.
26. Exponential Model of Fire Growth. Fire Safety
Science: Proceedings of the First International Symposium, 657-666 (Eds) C E Grant and P J
Pagni. Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New
27. Management of Fire Risk. Risk Assessment and
Management, 289-308, (Ed) L B Lave. Advances in Risk Analysis. Plenum
Press, New York, 1987.
28. Probabilistic Approach to Fire Risk Evaluation.
Fire Technology, August 1988, 204-226.
29. Extreme Value Theory. SFPE Handbook of Fire
Protection Engineering, First Edition, Section 4, Chapter 4, 28-33.
National Fire Protection Association, Quincy M A, USA, 1988.
(Reproduced in Second Edition, 1995, Section 5, Chapter 3, 27-32 and
Third Edition, 2002, Section 5, Chapter 8, 105-111).
30. Utility Theory. SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, First
Edition, Section 4, Chapter 8, 64-73. National Fire Protection
Association, Quincy M A, USA, 1988. (Reproduced in Second Edition,
1995, Section 5, Chapter 9, 76-86).
31. Value of Human Life. SFPE Handbook of Fire
Protection Engineering, First Edition, Section 4, Chapter 9, 74-80.
National Fire Protection Association, Quincy M A, USA, 1988.
(Reproduced in Second Edition, 1995, Section 5, Chapter 8, 69-75). 32.
Human behaviour in fires, early detection and building evacuation.
Premises Management, February 1989 (p24-26) and March 1989 (p79, 81
and 87). Industrial Media Ltd, Tonbridge, Kent.
33. Probabilistic evaluation of trade-offs between
fire safety measures. Fifth International Fire Protection Engineering
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, May 1989 (published in conference
34. Trade-offs between fire safety measures.
Probabilistic Evaluation, Fire Surveyor, 19, 2, 4-13, April 1990.
35. Human Behaviour in Fires. Fire Technology, 26,
2, 149-155, May 1990.
36. Risk of Explosion from Trains carrying LPG and
other Dangerous Goods. Fire Surveyor, 19, 3, 8-12, June 1990.
37. Probability-based Fire Safety Code. Journal of
Fire Protection Engineering, Vol 2, No 3, 75-91, 1990.
38. Informative Fire Warning Systems. Fire
Technology, 27, 1, 66-81, February 1991.
39. Non-deterministic modelling of fire spread.
Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol 3, No 2, 37-48, 1991.
40. Probabilistic Evaluation of Life Safety from
Fire. Report to the Fire Research Station, July 1991 (unpublished).
41. Fires in Certain Types of Buildings - Growth
Rates and Design Sizes. Report to the Swedish Fire Research Board
through Brandskyddslaget, Enskede, Sweden, April 1992 (unpublished) -
see also reference 7 on page 5.
42. Statistically-Determined Fire Growth Rates for
a Range of Scenarios: Part 1: An Analysis of Summary Data. Part 2:
Effectiveness of Fire Protection Measures -Probabilistic Evaluation.
Report to the Fire Research Station, October 1992 (unpublished).
43. Fire Resistance Periods for Elements of
Structure in Steel Framed Buildings Adjustment Factor for Sprinkler
Systems. Report to British Steel through Fire Safety Engineering
Consultants Ltd, July 1993 (unpublished) - see also ref 45.
44. Probabilistic Evaluation of Design Evacuation
Time. Proceedings of the CIB W14 International Symposium on Fire
Safety Engineering, University of Ulster, September 1993 Part 1,
45. Fire Resistance Periods for Structural Elements
- The Sprinkler Factor. Proceedings of the CIB W14 International
Symposium on Fire Safety Engineering, University of Ulster, September
1993, Part 3, 71-94.
46. Probability-Based Design of a Building for Fire
Safety. Annual Conference on Fire Research, National Institute for
Standards and Technology, USA, October 1993, NISTIR 5280 (Book of
47. Early Detection of Fire and Life Risk. Fire
Engineers Journal, Vol 53, 171, December 1993, 33-37.
48. Rebates for Deductibles and Protection Measures
in Industrial Fire Insurance. Proceedings of the XXV ASTIN Colloquium,
Cannes, France, September 1994, 299-325.
49. Heat Output and Fire Area. Proceedings of the
International Conference on Fire Research and Engineering, Orlando,
Florida, USA, September 1995, 481-486.
50. Probability-Based Building Design for Fire
Safety. Part 1: Fire Technology, Third Quarter 1995, 265-275. Part 2:
Fire Technology, Fourth Quarter 1995, 355-368.
51. Stochastic Models of Fire Growth. SFPE Handbook
of Fire Protection Engineering, Second Edition, Section 3, Chapter 15,
296-311. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, M.A, USA, 1995
(reproduce with an additional section in Third Edition, 2002, Section 3,
Chapter 15, 381-401).
52. Consequential/Indirect Loss. SFPE Handbook of
Fire Protection Engineering, Second Edition, Section 5, Chapter 7,
63-68. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, USA, 1995.
53. Probabilistic Evaluation of Structural Fire
Protection - A Simplified Guide. Report to the Fire Research Station,
March 1996. Fire Note 8, Fire Research Station, 1998.
54. Reliability of Fire Protection Systems. Advances in
Reliability Technology Symposium (13th ARTS), Manchester, April 1998.
55. Reliability and Effectiveness of Sprinkler Systems
for Life Safety. Report to the Fire Research Station, March 1999
56. Fire Safety Management and Risk Assessment.
Facilities, 17, Issue 9/10, 1999, 363-376.
57. Issues in Economic Valuation of Fire Risk. United
Engineering Foundation, New York Conference on Technical Basis for
Performance Based Fire Regulations, San Diego, California, USA, January
58. Measuring Fire Consequences in Economic Terms
(Revised by J. R. Hall). SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering,
Third Edition, Section Five, Chapter 6, 79-92, National Fire
Protection Association, Quincy, MA, USA, 2002.
59. Probabilistic Models for Fire Resistance
Evaluation. Accepted for presentation at the Structural Engineering
Institute/Society of Fire Protection Engineers, USA, Conference on
Designing Structures for Fire, September 30 - October 01, 2003,
Baltimore, MD, USA, 105-112.
60. Application of Extreme Value
Analysis to Fire Protection Engineering, Economics and Insurance. Third
International Symposium on Extreme Value Analysis, Theory and Practice, July
19-23, 2004, University of Aveiro, Portugal. Book of Abstracts (page 20).
61. Catastrophic Fires in Tall
Buildings - Risk Assessment, Protection, Economics and Insurance. Twelfth
Joint Seminar of the European Association of Law and Economics and the
Geneva Association, Lecce, Italy, June 15-16, 2007.
62. Statistical Analysis of Data from
Large Fires - Application of Extreme Value Methods, The M.O.R.E. Seminar
(Sponsored by the Geneva Association), Paris, September 2007.
63. Coupling of Deterministic and Non-Deterministic
Fire Models. Society of Fire Protection Engineers Professional Development
Conference, Las Vegas, October 14-19, 2007.
64. Enhanced Structural Fire Protection for a Tall
Building Against a Catastrophic Fire – Probabilistic Evaluation of
Performance and Economic Value. Proceedings of the 7th International
Conference on Performance-Based Codes and Fire Safety Design Methods,
Auckland, New Zealand, April 16-18, 2008, 385-394.
65. Opportunities for Predictive Financial Modelling of
Fire from Insurer Statistics. Insurers’ Fire Research Strategy (In FiReS)
Seminar, London, 14th February 2008. (Organised by the Fire Protection
66. Fire Protection Economics and Insurance.
Application of Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Techniques – Symposium on
Creating the Future of Fire Risk Management organised by the Underwriters
Laboratories, New Delhi, India, 5-6 February 2009.
Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Performance-Based Fire Safety Codes
and Building Designs. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on
Performance Based Codes and Safety Design Methods, Lund University, Sweden,
16 -18 June 2010, 429-440.
1. Chapter III and Appendices VI, XII and XIII of
the Report of the Motor Vehicles Insurance Committee 1962-1963,
Ministry of Transport, Government of India, September 1963.
2. Langdon-Thomas, G.J. and Ramachandran, G.
Improving the effectiveness of the fire-check door. Fire
International, 27, 73-80 (1970).
3. Ramachandran, G and Taylor, H.D. Management of
fire risk and extreme value theory. Keith Shipton Developments
Limited. Papers on Risk Management 3. The Munich Conference, October
1975, 1-9 (1975).
4. Baldwin, R, Ramachandran, G, and Chandler, S.E.
Furniture and furnishings in the home. International Symposium on Fire
Safety of Combustible Materials. University of Edinburgh, October
1975, Proceedings, 179-186.
5. Ramachandran, G and Chandler, S.E. The Economic
Value of Fire Detectors,. Fire Surveyor, April 1984, 8-14. .
6. Ramachandran, G and Chandler, S.E. Economic
Value of Early Detection of Fires in Industry and Commercial Premises, BRE Information Paper, IP13/84, July 1984.
7. Bengtson, S and Ramachandran, G. Fire Growth
Rates in Underground Facilities. Proceedings of the Fourth
International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, Ottawa, Canada, June
8. Bengtson, S and Ramachandran, G. Design Fires in
Underground Facilities. First European Symposium on Fire Safety
Science, Zurich, August 1995, Book of Abstracts, 59-60.
9. Watts, J.M. and Ramachandran, G.
Fire Protection Engineering Economics (The Official Magazine of the Society
of Fire Protection Engineers, USA). Issue 26, Spring 2005, 10-17.
CONTRIBUTION TO BRITISH STANDARD
Part 7 on Probabilistic Risk
Assessment (co-author with Dr David Charters), 2003 - Supplement to BS7974,
2001 on Application of Fire Safety Engineering Principles to the Design of
FIRE RESEARCH NOTES
664 1967 (May) Frequency distribution of fire loss
690 1968 (Jan) Fire doors and losses in large fires
763 1969 (May) Preliminary analysis of large fires
during 1968 (first author)
775 1969 (Oct) The assessment of smoke production
by building materials in fires (co author)
792 1969 (Nov) A brief analysis of large fires
during 1965 to 1968 (first author)
828 1970 (May) An enquiry into the frequency of
829 1970 (July) Large fires during 1969 (first
837 1970 (Sept) Some possible applications of the
theory of extreme values for the analysis of fire loss data
839 1970 (Sept) Fire loss indexes
844 1970 (Oct) Fire losses in different countries
891 1971 (Sept) Large fires during 1970 (first
906 1971 (Dec) National expenditure on sprinkler
910 1972 (Jan) Extreme value theory and fire
losses. Further results
915 1972 (Jan) The use of fire extinguishers in
dwellings (first author)
929 1972 (March) An application of the theory of
extreme value for estimating the delay in the discovery of a fire
930 1972 (March) Geographical distribution of large
fires during the period 1966 1970
943 1972 (Aug) Extreme value theory and fire
956 1973 (Jan) Large fires during 1971 (first
991 1973 (Oct) Factors affecting fire loss -
multiple regression model with extreme values
1021 1974 (Nov) Toxic gases and smoke
from polyvinyl chloride in fires - Statistical analysis of
test results (first author)
FIRE RESEARCH MEMORANDA
No Date Title
9 1970 (July) Covariance of large order statistics
from exponential type distributions
19 1970 (Oct) Average of large order statistics
from exponential type distributions
53 1971 (Oct) Code list for large fires (1971
onwards) (first author)
78 1972 (May) The effect of fire frequency on the
losses in large fires
FIRE RESEARCH INTERNAL NOTES
251 1966 Proposals for a second international
co-operative research programme on fire behaviour in buildings (author of
256 1966 (May) An enquiry into the frequency of
257 1966 (May) Smoke-stop doors
261 1966 (July) A bivariate linear model for
predicting fire loss in a building
266 1967 (Jan) Economic analysis of fire protection
measures in a building - mathematical model
285 1967 (Jan) A preliminary investigation of large
fire losses in textile industries
289 1967 (Aug) A few facts about losses in large
300 1967 (Dec) A test for smoke production -
Experimental design for certain operational factors
345 1969 (June) An assessment of the economic value
380 1970 (July) The economics of sprinkler
protection - user of the building
BUILDING RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENT NOTES
No Date Title
17/75 1975 (Feb) Report on visit to Canada and USA,
160/76 1977 (Jan) The probability of
failure of high alumina concrete cement beams (joint
86/79 1979 (July) The effect of climatic conditions
on the incidence and spread of fires
63/81 1981 Properties of extreme order
statistics and their application to fire protection and
PAPER FOR BRAC COMMITTEE
1982 Jan The value of human life
- Statistical and economic problems in fire protection. Meeting of
the Dutch Actuarial Society, Amsterdam, February 1975.
- Extreme order statistics from exponential type distributions with
applications to fire protection and insurance. PhD Thesis, (1975),
- Fires in buildings - The Human Factor. Note to Professor Bishop of
University London for inclusion in a report for SRC Working Party on
human factors in buildings, June 1982.
- Trains carrying liquefied petroleum gas - Risk of explosion
(1978). Internal paper submitted to Department of Transport.
- Evaluation of research projects concerned with fire safety.
Operational Research Conference, Civil Service College, Sunningdale,