Podcast transcript: How can we minimise the impact of melting glaciers?
Transcript for podcast embedded in ‘Minimising the impact of melting glaciers’ Spotlight..
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Rich Williams, Presenter: Hello and welcome to ‘How to Fix…’ a podcast all about the behind-the-scenes innovations that are solving society's big questions. I'm your host, Rich Williams, and across this series, we talk to the cutting-edge researchers, activists and politicians from the University of Leeds who are taking ideas from the lab to the streets to make this world a better place.
Now, hundreds of millions of people could be forced to leave their homes as the world's glaciers melt. These ice giants, the water towers of the world, provide fresh water to over half of humanity, sustaining farms, hydropower and ecosystems, but they're disappearing faster than ever. 2024 was the hottest year on record. In 2023, glaciers lost more mass than in any year since records began.
Now this isn't a distant threat, it's happening right now, cutting off communities that depend on meltwater and putting millions at risk of displacements. Scientists warn that unchecked loss could trigger a global catastrophe.
Glaciers are fragile and unpredictable. Earlier this year, a collapse destroyed 90% of the Swiss village of Blatten. In the Himalayas, deadly floods from bursting glacial lakes, like the one that swept through Thame in Nepal, are becoming more common.
The message is clear: the future of our world is on the line.
For indigenous peoples, glaciers are more than ice. They're sacred, tied to gods and ancestral heritage. Their loss would erase not only vital water sources, but irreplaceable cultural landmarks.
Recognising the urgency, The United Nations has declared 2025 the ‘International Year of Glacier Preservation’ to expand monitoring, build early warning systems and protect both people and heritage.
At the University of Leeds, researchers are leading that effort, working with mountain communities to understand what's happening, how to adapt, and how to predict disaster before it strikes.
If glaciers vanish at this pace, ecosystems collapse, communities uproot, and human survival itself is at risk; but there's still hope. By understanding these frozen worlds and acting fast, we can secure a future where glaciers, and the hundreds of millions who depend on them, endure.
So today we want to ask, how can we minimize the impact of melting glaciers? Diving into the science, the stories and the urgent human stakes in the race to save our glaciers.
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Newsreader 1: Scientists say the rate at which Himalayan glaciers are melting has doubled in recent years. The glaciers are a vital source of water for hundreds of millions in South Asia.
Newsreader 2: The iconic mountain landscapes of Switzerland are changing before our eyes.
Newsreader 3: Tonight, the dramatic images just in here – a massive glacier collapse – and now the urgent search at this hour in the Swiss Alps is playing out in the village of Blatten, now partially destroyed tonight.
Newsreader 4: The rapid decline of Switzerland's glaciers was laid bare this week after a new report showed that they lost 3% of their ice in the last year alone.
Newsreader 5: UN Scientists say the main reason for the rapid reductions in glacier ice worldwide over the past few decades is clear: it's human-caused climate change.
Newsreader 6: New research shows glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain regions are at risk of losing up to 80% of their volume by the end of the century.
Newsreader 7: Those who are living in the basins of those glaciers, or in the high hills and the mountains, you have no solution at all.
Newsreader 8: The melting mountains are destabilizing the landscape. Experts warn flash floods, avalanches, droughts and food shortages could increase dramatically in the years ahead.
Newsreader 9: Many of the country's smaller glaciers won't survive our current level of warming, but scientists hope that rapid action could help preserve what's left.
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Rich Williams: With me to discuss this are three guests from the University of Leeds who are making a real difference. Professor Duncan Quincey, a leading glaciologist whose research focuses on how mountain glaciers are responding to climate change. He studies the way these vast ice bodies are reshaping under rising temperatures, and what this means for the millions of people who rely on them. From the security of vital water supplies to the growing risks of glacial hazards, his work highlights the urgent challenges we face. Duncan, thanks so much for being on this podcast.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Thanks very much for having me.
Rich Williams: Now we also have Kenton Cool, one of the world's foremost high-altitude climbers and alumnus at the University of Leeds, who spent time with Professor Duncan Quincey's research team while on his nineteenth ascent of Everest earlier this year. With decades of expeditions across the Himalayas and beyond, Kenton has witnessed glaciers retreating at an alarming pace, offering a firsthand perspective on the stark current reality. Kenton, fabulous to have you here.
Kenton Cool: Thanks for having us.
Rich Williams: And Dr Lauren Rawlins, a glaciologist and Teaching Fellow in the School of Geography at the University of Leeds, who studies how glaciers and glacial lakes are changing in a warming climate. Using cutting-edge tools like satellites and drones, she tracks the growth of these lakes and the rising risk of sudden, devastating floods that endanger mountain communities. Her research in the Himalayas highlights how rapidly these changes are unfolding, and the critical need to prepare for their impact. Lauren, thanks for joining us here on ‘How to Fix…’.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Thank you very much.
Rich Williams: Well, listen, it's great to have you all here, and I thought, Kenton, it might be worth just coming to you first, because, you know, for the majority of people listening today, probably 99% of people have not been towards Everest or the Himalayas, and you have, lots of times. So just paint the picture for us a little bit if you can. Take us, transport us into that world that we're talking about, the terrain, the topography, the people, the climate, and what it is you've experienced on all those expeditions you've done.
Kenton Cool: Well, I think a really great place to start is, I've come back from Pakistan relatively recently; I was there last month. And the valley that we were up – we fly to Islamabad, then up to Skardu, and then we drove into what we would call the road head, this tiny weeny village called Hushe, and then from Hushe, we trek up towards base camp.
And the whole area is dominated by huge glaciers, literally, these rivers of ice, and the amount of flowing water coming down from these glaciers, which, you know, it's always been there. These rivers have always been there. The various tributaries et cetera, et cetera, the glaciers – they are frozen rivers of ice – but in this area they're heavily strewn with boulders and moraine and debris on top. I mean, they don't look like a frozen river of ice that the listener might be thinking about. I mean, they're quite dirty and the noise of constant melting, of the constant movement of the mountains, you know, the moraines are moving, the mountains are moving, the glaciers are moving. But the dominant force is the glacier.
Rich Williams: In terms of the area itself, when you're looking around you, I mean, it must have that kind of wow moment that keeps you going back, was it 19 times?
Kenton Cool: Well, 19 times to Everest, yeah. I mean, this was, I think, my fifth or sixth trip to Pakistan. And what really blew me away with Pakistan, compared with perhaps the Everest region, which I know that my colleagues here this afternoon are very familiar with, was, you know, the scale of the glaciers. In Pakistan, when you get into the Karakorum mountain range, which is essentially an extension of the Himalayas, the number of glaciers and the extent of them. They are all around you, arguably more so than perhaps the Everest region, and it's absolutely incredible, it’s a landscape which is almost alien to the human-being, because it's so vastly different to anything that we're used to, certainly in the UK, you know, arguably in Europe. Yes, we get glaciers in Europe, obviously, but not on the same scale. They don't dominate the landscape in quite the same way. And from a personal perspective, you know, I just want to explore and be part of it and understand the ecosystem that little bit better.
Rich Williams: Yeah, it's fascinating, because, I mean, I've never been to that area like most people listening, but you've painted a picture there. For anyone who had Arendelle from ‘Frozen’ in mind, we now know it doesn't look like that – it's slightly different than what you're talking about and certainly, the scale that we're working with.
And, Lauren, is that one of the difficulties sometimes with trying to talk about the research? Like, actually, for a lot of people, these are far flung places and communities that they don't think about so much. But this research that we're going to talk about – and the issue that we're trying to fix, you're trying to fix with your work – is really important. Why is it so important?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: It's so important because, you know, there are a lot of mountain communities that are strewn throughout these high mountain regions. These communities, you know, they depend on these glaciers – particularly for their water, for farming, for agriculture, for tourism. A lot of these mountain communities, their kind of ‘primary work’ is through agriculture, through being a Sherpa, and through the tourism industry. So, for them, it's their livelihoods, it's their everything. So it's particularly important because they, as Kenton said, they're disappearing – and with that, so are their livelihoods.
Rich Williams: Duncan and Kenton, I'm aware that the last time you were recording a podcast together was at base camp on Everest. So, how are the conditions in our little studio compared to that, with our setup? Is it all right for you, Duncan?
Professor Duncan Quincey: Yeah, it's pretty much acceptable I think [laughter].
Kenton Cool: It’s not quite as hot is it? It was really hot at Camp Two.
Professor Duncan Quincey: That's true. Yeah. So, yeah, it was actually at 6,400 [metres] wasn't it? Where we were both sweating profusely, which is kind of ironic, because that was exactly the process that we went up there to investigate. But I was massively under prepared for, actually, how intense that radiation is, yeah.
Rich Williams: And you, of course, have the experience of being there, up there, many times. But, Duncan, for you, was that your first time up there? What was it like, as a first time being up there, and sort of embracing and experiencing that environment around you?
Professor Duncan Quincey: Well, for me, it was, it was awe-inspiring. I have been visiting that site for more than 20 years. I was looking at the Khumbu Glacier for my PhD, and I often looked at the ice fall and thought, wow, it would be great to go up there and look into the Western Cwm and see what that is really like up there. So, this was the first opportunity I've had to do that. It's the first opportunity I've been higher than 6,000 metres and it was just a jaw-dropping landscape.
I have also been to the Karakorum, and I completely understand exactly what you're talking about there, Kenton. I find that landscape to be massive – on a scale that we don't see in other places. And, I would have one desire: to take our students to somewhere like that, because you can see geomorphology in action. It's incredible.
But in the Western Cwm, yeah, I mean, basically white surfaces everywhere you look, massive extremes from being freezing in the night to being so hot during the day, and only about a 20-minute transition between those two states of extreme – a constant reminder from nature that that you are privileged to be at that sort of altitude. So, a real pleasure to work there, and so satisfying to be able to actually get some data from there for the first time.
Rich Williams: You didn’t have one of these comfy seats with you, then, when you were up there? It would be an extra thing to carry that you didn’t need! Kenton, we're talking about the changes over the last few decades, let's say in the time that you've been going up there. Give us an idea, how rapidly are these landscapes changing in terms of the melting glaciers that you've noticed? Has it become incredibly obvious over the years? Has it been a gradual thing or are you going, every time you go, you can see a real difference?
Kenton Cool: So, it's a bit of everything. I mean, the Himalayan glaciers, I think because of their vast scale, it's harder to see it on a year-on-year basis. These glaciers, they’re huge, they're humongous. Where you can really tell the difference, and where it's arguably better documented through photographs, is the European Alps.
I remember going first to the Chamonix Valley in France, and walking up to what's called the Bossons Glacier. It's one of the glaciers that flows down from Mont Blanc. And I would have first been there in, I don’t know, ‘93 or ‘94 – ‘92 maybe, I forget exactly when I was there – and the difference that you can see almost year on year.
And then, if you move up the valley just a little bit to the Mer de Glace, arguably one of the most famous glaciers in Europe, they used to have plaques on the wall as you go down hundreds of steps to get down onto the glacier. They used to have a plaque on the wall: this is where the glacier was in, say, 2010, this is where it was in 2004, this is where it was in 1990. And it's really frightening how far vertically – we're not talking about horizontal retreat of the glacier – this is vertical loss, and you are talking tens of metres over a period of literally, like, five, six, seven years. It is mind-numbing.
And I think what we were talking about a little bit earlier, you know, perhaps why people aren't, certainly in the Western world, that concerned about it: A) is because it's somebody else's problem; certainly in the Himalayas, you know, it's not on our doorstep. But also, it's not necessarily a problem for today, for tomorrow or even for next year. It's the generation coming up behind us, or maybe even the generation after that, who are going to feel the real impact. So from our perspective, it's really easy to just stick our head in the sand saying it's not on our doorstep, and then move away from it and then get stuck into something else.
Whereas in reality, and I'm sure Duncan will say this, once you hit that tipping point, and that tipping point is probably going to be within our generation – there was something in the press only the other day saying we've reached that tipping point – then there's nothing we can do. And it's so frustrating that people don't seem to realise that it may not necessarily be our problem on the face of it, but it's going to be everybody's problem globally, very, very shortly.
Rich Williams: This isn't a kind of ‘kick the can down the road’ sort of time, then?
Kenton Cool: No absolutely not.
Rich Williams: It's a time for action. When you talk about your frustration, I can see it visually in your face, because it's obviously an area that is so important – and, initially, for the communities around there the dangers that there are with the current course of track that we're on.
Kenton Cool: Yeah, I mean, Pakistan recently. I mean, yes, it's through rainfall as well, but the glacial outflow in some of the rivers are just washing bridges away. You know, Hushe village is essentially cut off right now. The bridge that links Hushe with the outside world is literally hanging on by a thread. You can't get four-by-fours across it anymore, and the majority of that water is glacial outflow. It's just the melt from the glacier. And if that bridge goes, Hushe is cut off. It's a whole community, and about 1,500 people live there – it will be cut off from the Western world.
Rich Williams: Duncan, you're looking at different areas. You've done your research in one area in particular, but there are obviously lots of areas that are affected in this way. They will differ from area to area as well. So, you can only research one place at a time. I don't know how adaptable they are from one to another, but, in a general sense, are there some regions that are more vulnerable than others at the moment? And which ones are they, and what are those vulnerabilities?
Professor Duncan Quincey: There's definitely regional variability in terms of how vulnerable people are, yeah, definitely. There's a whole layer of complexity in terms of how people interact with the environment that they live in as well. And I think one of the reasons why we are so keen to study the Himalaya and that whole region is because the connection between people and the environment is so direct.
So, we see people, particularly in the western parts – you see villages like the one that Kenton just described – where they've actually built their livelihoods around the meltwater that comes directly out of those glaciers. So, it's in those sorts of places where you see a small change in how the glacier behaves, then that has a direct and immediate effect on the people who are living there. In other regions, that may be less so.
I think a lot of the glaciological understanding can be applied across different regions. We look also a lot in South America; we've done a lot of work in the Peruvian Andes, and many of the processes that we understand from other regions can be applied within that setting as well.
But then, when you put people into the mix, that's when it actually gets really interesting, because the cultural side of this – you know, what sort of history determines how people use that water, and when they use it, and who can access it at different times, and why that would be – the sort of hierarchies within those systems adds sort of a layer of complexity onto the vulnerability story that's really challenging to get hold of.
Certainly, there's a lot of data that shows where the glaciers are going to recede the fastest, and where the water is going to decline in the next few decades, as opposed to in four or five decades. I mean, many catchments have already passed that point, and the water is now already declining. So we can say that with certainty. What I think we can say with less certainty is then how the people are able to adapt to those changes. And I think that's where we can make a real impact, is by understanding the vulnerability a lot better, so that then we can give people the information that they need: how long they're going to have the resource for, what that's going to look like. Is it all going to come in one go, or is it going to be spread out across the seasons, to be able to help them to make the decisions to adapt to the changes they're going to see?
Rich Williams: Talk to us a bit about – because Kenton touched on debris covered glaciers – people might have different perceptions about different types of glaciers. And you've got an image in your mind, don't you, when you think about a glacier, and it's not necessarily a debris covered glacier. So you're an expert in that field; talk to us a little bit about that.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Debris-covered glaciers are an interesting subset of glaciology, if you like. They're glaciers which are largely ice within the glacier itself, and then there's a layer of debris which is on the surface. It's been sourced from rockfall material which has started its life, usually in the upper areas of the glacier.
As that glacier cuts its way through the landscape, it obviously dislodges material, undermines some of the geology and the surrounding hillslopes, and then the rockfall lands onto the surface of the glacier and just gets carried along on a conveyor belt.
Like, you know, when you've got your shopping on the conveyor belt at the supermarket and it all piles up at the end because the checkout assistant can't keep up – and that's exactly how it happens with the debris-covered glacier. So that you get the thickest debris at the terminus, and the effect of that is that it really shields the ice, which is underneath from the solar radiation, from the air temperatures, and at a reasonable thickness, it will stop any of that energy from getting into the ice, and will actually preserve it, when you compare it to a glacier without a debris cover.
So, I suppose, in fancy words, we would say that it responds in a non-linear way to the climate. Normally, with a clean-ice glacier, you can say “if you have this climatic force, then the glacier will respond in this way.” But with a debris-covered glacier, because you've got that layer on the top, which really puts a barrier between the ice and the forcing, it responds in a very non-linear way. They’re very difficult to predict if you're looking forward into the next few decades.
Rich Williams: Yeah, of all the analogies I was expecting, glaciers and my local trip to Aldi wasn't one of them, but that's why we’re [here]! It made perfect sense when you said it.
[laughter]
Professor Duncan Quincey: And you've gone and name-checked the supermarket, I was thinking in my head, I can't do that.
[laughter]
Rich Williams: Whichever one, whichever one you want, all supermarkets are…
Kenton Cool: Perhaps Iceland would be more adapt!
[laughter]
Rich Williams: Kenton, thank you. Should have thought that myself! Just talk us through the researchers, the team that you took to Mount Everest – and we were talking about [how] you guys had done the podcast at the bottom there, which is fascinating to listen to – to drill into the Khumbu Glacier. Now, we're not talking about going down to your local B&Q and picking up a drill from there, we're talking about some pretty impressive tech and equipment. Explain to us what the purpose of the expedition was, what you were trying to do. And also, just because it's really interesting, the practicalities, the logistics of going to somewhere that's so, you know, inhospitable in many ways, and carrying out that work.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Well, our previous work that this was built on, had drilled in that debris-covered area we were just talking about, so that's below Everest Base Camp. And we took an adapted pressure washer, a car washer, if you like, which put out water under pressure and also with heat. And that enabled us to drill 192 metres down into the ice below Everest Base Camp.
And we put some temperature sensors into the borehole there, and we measured the temperatures the year-round. And the main conclusion of that work was that the ice was no colder than minus 3.3 degrees. So, this is a glacier forming on the highest point of Earth. Theoretically, you'd think that the ice would form at the air temperature that the snow falls at – so that might be minus 12, minus 15 degrees, something like that. But just to reiterate, I mean, the coldest ice we could find anywhere we drilled was minus 3.3 degrees, so very close already to the melting point.
So then, this new work that we've been doing is to try and work out why that is. We talked to quite a lot of people at that time – we didn't know Kenton, although had we done so, I think he'd probably quite quickly have told us what the answer was. [laughter]
And it is that thing that we started talking about right up front, which is that it's absolutely boiling hot in the Western Cwm. And that comes from the intense solar radiation and the white-covered surfaces that are all around, so the radiation that's coming from the sun is literally bouncing off every surface that's available, and that's why it's so unpleasant to work up there. And so, we set out to really show that this is a process which we haven't well understood until this point.
So, we took some drills up. When I say drills this time, we weren't going to 192 metres, we just wanted to see what was happening at the surface, because that's where the solar radiation is most intense. We aimed to drill to 12 or 15 metres, install some temperature sensors, and see what’s going on in those surface layers. So, that's what we did. We had a weather station up there as well, so we could measure the solar radiation, and we've just been waiting to get the data back to see actually what’s happening up there in the Western Cwm compared to much further down.
Rich Williams: I mean, you've spoken about it like it was a very smooth process, but I imagine it had some challenges doing that. I mean, I'm thinking just lugging that equipment to the back of your garden to put in a fence post wouldn't be that easy. But actually, to just, the physical nature of getting everything up there, just talk us through that a little bit and those challenges that you faced to actually be able to have an idea that’s “yeah, let's go and do this, this will work for the research”. But then you’ve got to go and do it there!
Professor Duncan Quincey: You have, yeah. So we went through a very long planning process. At some point, we thought we might even fly into the Western Cwm directly and skip the Khumbu Icefall, but that was fraught with its own dangers, because you haven’t acclimatised properly, and you need to guarantee 100% that you can also fly back out. But what we were lucky enough to find was that we could have helicopter support to be able to take the heaviest kit up there.
And then, you know, massive credit to the support team that we had, to [make it] able for us to do this work in the first place. So they really led us as a team through that Khumbu Icefall. They carried our heaviest equipment from where it was left by the helicopter up to the site where we wanted it to drill, and back again. They fed us. They watered us. So, there were three academics at that point: myself; Matt Peacey, who's at Aberystwyth University; and Tom Matthews, who's at King's College London. And the three of us made our way through the icefall, suffered a little bit with the altitude, bedded down at Camp One, had one night there, and then made our way to Camp Two – and that was where we really based ourselves for the following week.
And the drilling itself, well, that went okay. I have to admit, there was a point where Matt, who is the drilling specialist, was in the tent horizontal, trying to keep his stomach intact. Myself and Tom were out with the steam drill that we'd also taken to do some shallow drilling, and had a gas canister and a steam drill – and I could not see at all how I connected one to the other. So, there was about 10 or 15 minutes where I was thinking, “this is quite a well-funded project, and it's come down to me being able to connect a gas canister to a steam drill”.
I asked Tom if he knew how to do it. He said the last time he'd used the steam drill was about 15 years ago, and he couldn't remember. And actually, I think in the end, it was one of our Nepali team who turned the steam drill upside down, as you do, found this little flap that you could lever open on the bottom, and that was exactly where the connector went. So it certainly wasn't smooth. There were times when we thought “we might as well just come home with our tails between our legs”, but one thing led to another, and it was actually quite successful.
Rich Williams: The last thing you want is your drill specialist not to be able to come with you and drill, I guess. Not ideal, but he's all right now, it was just altitude…
Professor Duncan Quincey: He's 100% fine.
Kenton Cool: I think it's worth saying, I mean, it is such a hostile environment that Duncan and his team were trying to work in. It's really hard for the listener to get their head around; not simply being there and existing there, but then having to work there when the human body itself is kind of fighting for its very existence. And then you've got to build these drills and put them together. As Duncan said, overnight, I’m making it up [but] it's maybe minus 15, minus 20, and then when the sun comes up, it's, I don't know, plus 40. It's such a hostile environment. So, to actually do any meaningful research there, I mean, I totally doff my cap to the team. You know, it's nuts.
Rich Williams: It's the worst holidays when you’ve got to pack for both seasons, isn't it?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah! [laughter]
Rich Williams: Absolute nightmare, absolute nightmare. It is incredible work, I want to go back to that point you mentioned, when you were talking us through it, about the temperature of the ice – because that's clearly what you were going up there for – which was obviously higher than where you would expect it to be, given the terrain you're in, given the fact of the, you know, the temperature that's adjacent to it. What is that next part of that process of working out? I guess, if that remains the same, nothing changes there, first question: what is the consequence of that?
Professor Duncan Quincey: The main consequence is that these glaciers are actually much closer to the melting point than we've ever realised. The way that we model them numerically is to assume that the glacier forms at the temperature that the snow falls, and then that has impact on how you then represent how the glacier flows in the model and several other processes.
If you then simulate the glacier to be much warmer, as we've found it to be, that means that ice is discharged to the lower elevations much quicker. It means that then the ice doesn't need to be warmed so much by the surrounding atmosphere for it to melt. And the impact of all of that is that our projections will [be]come a lot shorter. So these glaciers will most likely be projected to disappear even faster than we had previously realised.
I think the only conclusion from this work is that our projections of how long these glaciers will be around for have been a little bit more optimistic than we might have liked.
Rich Williams: Yeah, and Kenton that data about the temperature of the ice up there in an area that you frequented so many times – you know, Duncan saying, perhaps research has been over optimistic in so far that the rate that it's going – must, for you, be an ‘alarm bells ringing’ kind of piece of data?
Kenton Cool: No, not really. It's more devastating, because the timescales we're talking about are really short already, so to bring that forward is petrifying. I mean, the glacial loss of this particular glacier, the Khumbu Glacier. I mean, I don't know, you [Duncan] might be able to give us more information on it. But some anecdotal evidence of how much glacial loss has risen in the Western Cwm alone: the American filmmaker, documentary maker, climber David Breashears, he was up there taking photographs for his project, ‘Rivers of Ice’. And he was comparing photographs taken in 1952 by the Swiss expedition, and he was up there some 60, 70 years later. He thought that the Khumbu Glacier had shrunk, vertically, about 300 feet in 70 years. And that's really scary.
And now, if we put some of Duncan's theories on top of that, that actually is probably even faster than we thought. It's not a worry; it's devastating news. And leadership teams and the UN, or whoever, they need to listen to people like Duncan and act, because nobody's acting. And that's the issue.
Rich Williams: Lauren, on that. When you think of, maybe for a lot of people, you think of, “well, there was some ice, and now there's a bit less ice, and next year, there'll be a bit less ice…” When you look at footage of some of the devastation that you can probably talk about here; Blatten in particular, which is in Switzerland, right?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Correct.
Rich Williams: I looked. I mean, it's widely available on YouTube, just type it in, of the devastation caused when that destruction happened, and all the debris, and, you know, that is coming down towards that village, which, you know, the large percentage of which is just destroyed. That's not, “oh, there's a bit less ice anymore.” This is real impact on real people and real communities who are at the risk of devastating outcomes.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yes, absolutely correct. Like the case in Blatten, as you said, I think it's 90% of that village is now destroyed, and there's ongoing effects to that, in that now you've got all this debris that's there, you're likely not going to be able to rebuild, and you've got a lake now forming because it's completely cut off a river. But as you say, that's a huge detachment from that glacier that has hurtled towards that village. And, you know, we kind of haven't seen detachment type events happening in places such as the Himalayas, yet, none that I can think of anyway. But, these are glacial hazards, and they're getting more and more frequent.
Rich Williams: Yeah, I mean, it's truly horrifying.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, it is. It is.
Rich Williams: You go look at that footage you know, imagine you or your village at the bottom of that, it would be terrible.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Absolutely. I think an important, kind of, aspect to bring up as well, is, they were fortunate in that that village was evacuated before it happened. It could have been a hell of a lot worse. There could have been, you know, deaths. That area had been monitored, [and a] couple of landslides had happened before.
In terms of places such as the Himalayas, we don't have those kind of systems in place. You know, they were fortunate to be evacuated. That sort of evacuation wouldn’t particularly happen in the Himalayas. So for them, if, you know, some sort of risk, some sort of hazard happens; so we're seeing a lot more kind of glacial lake outbursts, floods – which I'm sure we'll talk about a bit more later – that there's barely any pre-warnings to that. It will happen, and that's where we see the destruction of villages and the loss of livelihoods.
Rich Williams: Yeah. I want to come on to the research that you're doing…
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, sure.
Rich Williams: Because Duncan's with drills and you're with drones, and so it’s really amazing stuff. Like, I know you work within it the whole time, so I know you know it's amazing, but when you hear about it for the first time, it's “wow” stuff. It's probably worth mentioning Glacial Lake Outburst Floods; GLOFs.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Indeed.
Rich Williams: Explain to us what those are, because in some ways, you know, if you don't know about them, why would you? And in your world of research, you understand, but if you can explain to us what they are, how it happens, and those effects, that'd be brilliant.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. We're seeing glaciers kind of retreat. They're losing mass, they're losing ice, and with that comes meltwater. Ultimately, that meltwater is typically pooling at the front of these glaciers. These are called, kind of, proglacial lakes. We can also see pooling on the surface. So when we say, you know, these particularly Himalayan glaciers are covered in debris, it's not only debris they're covered in, they’re covered in hundreds of meltwater ponds. And over time, these are coalescing into larger lakes, those at the front of glaciers. They're getting larger, wider, deeper than they previously have been. And you [can] kind of think of it as hundreds of Olympic swimming pools worth of meltwater, them being contained by a very loose wall of sediment and rock.
So these rock walls, the sediment walls, called moraine dams or ice dams, these can be – well, they are – incredibly unstable. So, any sort of rockfall, avalanche, even the amount of water that's being captured behind those walls, can ultimately cause collapses. And these glacial lakes will then flood downstream tens, if not hundreds, of kilometres, then affecting local communities downstream.
So, glacial lakes; there's more of them. I think in the last 30 years, their numbers have doubled in the number of glacial lakes that we're seeing, and they're just becoming an increasingly important hazard to be aware of, glacial lakes.
Rich Williams: Yeah, there's a sort of a tipping point that isn't always going to be obvious, exactly when that’s going to happen.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Oh no, yes. Absolutely.
Rich Williams: You were saying about the instability. I mean, it could be heavy rainfall, could be some rocks coming down, and then boom, open it goes, and then you've got a problem downstream.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's a number of, kind of larger glacial lakes that are classed as potentially dangerous – that, you know, are known about. But it's often those smaller ones that are not kind of kept tabs on, that can also pose big, big problems. Which is partly what we saw in Thame last year, in their glacial lake outburst flood that they had there.
Rich Williams: And in the way that Kenton did for the areas he was talking about, give us an idea from what you know [about] the people that are living there, the villages, and how, how many there are, how many people are sort of at risk of these kinds of things?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: I mean, there are hundreds of tiny villages throughout the Himalayas, all kind of within these downstream areas of these glacial lakes. Like we've said earlier, they depend on the water, that's why they're positioned there. They depend on the meltwater for agriculture, for livelihoods. So yeah, as I say, there's hundreds of villages that are throughout the Himalayas that are going to be affected by these sorts of hazards.
Rich Williams: Now, the whole point of this podcast is to focus on the fact that there are issues, but actually, what's being done to hopefully help it – and this is where the research comes in as well, [we’ve been] talking about drones and satellites and thermal imaging. [Can] you tell us the kind of work that you're doing, what you're trying to achieve from it, and then how it can help? So, we know that we have this issue there. We know that there are these outburst floods, there are risks of outburst floods. What can be done to help? What is it that you're actually researching?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yep, so, I'm part of a new project here at the University of Leeds, and for short, it's called GLO, or the Glacial Lake Observatory, led by Dr Scott Watson. And essentially, what we're doing is we're looking at these glacial lakes from multiple different approaches and platforms. So, we're looking at these lakes from satellites. So from satellites, we can look at thousands at the same time, and over time, we can then look at how these lakes are changing, evolving. Then, from that satellite imagery, we can kind of hone in a bit more and go into the field. So, we're looking at them from, kind of, air as well. So drones, as you've previously mentioned.
So from the drones, we can get much higher-resolution imagery than we can from satellites. From that imagery that we can capture from drones, we’re surveying the valleys, we’re surveying the glacial lakes that are within the higher elevation regions, we can build these incredible 3D digital models – like digital twins – of these areas to just get a better idea of, okay, how vulnerable are these downstream communities? And we can put these into better flood models and try to assist with, okay, how much water is being stored here, and what are the implications downstream?
And then, combined with that, we also want to look at them from beneath. So there's not a lot of information about the lakes from below. When we talk about below, we're talking about how deep they are. From the depth of the lakes, we can then work out how much volume of meltwater is essentially being captured in these glacial lakes. And that's incredibly important for these modeling prospects of how much water could potentially be flooded.
Rich Williams: And that is early detection systems for communities, for example?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah.
Rich Williams: If it's not prevention – which is difficult, you know, we're talking about a climate change issue, clearly – so, if it's not prevention, then it's at least looking after those communities that might be effected, forewarning, doing the kind of things where, I guess, for example, we have tsunami warning detections, as an example of natural disaster things.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, yeah.
Rich Williams: It’s being able to put those things in place and having the information.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Absolutely. It's trying to gather all the different bits of information from satellites, from drones, from what we call sonar, so taking those bathymetry surveys, in order to just better understand what is happening with these glacial lakes, in order to, as you say, try and inform better early warning systems. Even just education of the local communities, of what they can do to keep an eye on what's happening within their local environment, how to act if this was to happen, and just generally, to help even with, kind of, local planning, so in terms of infrastructure as well.
Rich Williams: Tell us about your trip out to the Himalayas, because it's really interesting to get that perspective from all of you about actually being there. What was that like as an experience?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, so it was my first time this year in the Himalayas. So me and Scott, we went from May to June. And very different to these guys, you know, you were very focused on Everest. We were around, kind of, [the] Everest region. So we kind of hiked, I think it's about 300 kilometers in total, surveyed over about 30 glacial lakes and, yeah, varying different altitudes. So, a lot of these lakes are at those higher elevations. So, 4,500 – 5,000 metres, I had some altitude sickness, unfortunately, but it didn't stop me too much from working.
So, my job was to survey the valleys, survey the lakes through these drone surveys, so taking 1000s of images that we can process later. And then Scott was down kind of on the glacier, looking at these glacial lakes from underneath, either via kayak, and having the sonar attached to a kayak, or attached to a little remote-control boat – if the lakes weren't too big.
Rich Williams: It's heavy work, this. I mean, it's not for the faint hearted, you know, all the research you're doing. I mean, Kenton, you've been doing these expeditions for, you know, your whole career!
Kenton Cool: I was just thinking, the Sherpa support team, they must have loved remote-controlled boats and kayaks. I bet they were all over that, I bet they thought they were amazing. [laughter]
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Absolutely!
Rich Williams: And there must be something incredible about going from what is effectively theoretic research to actually, practically, being able to see for yourself and the impact that has, for you as a person who's at the forefront, who's trying to lead, you know, with the team of people you're working with. To actually be there, in position, must be really impactful.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Yeah, absolutely. And even to talk to the local people as well, and kind of, you know, they're seeing the changes that are happening. They're being impacted by the changes. So, to be within these different communities, as we were kind of going around that Everest region, just talking to people, that was really valuable, to listen to those local voices.
Rich Williams: Kenton, for all that you've spoken about, how urgent it is, and how upsetting and devastating it is to see things changing so quickly, it must be also amazing to see that we're in a position in 2025 where the tech available to be able to actually do this kind of research is there, because without that, then where would we be? So you know, even if things aren't moving at the rate that it needs to move at, the fact that we have this stuff in place is quite amazing.
Kenton Cool: Well, knowledge is power to a degree. And I think the work – which not just the two amazing individuals here are doing, but their cohort, the glaciologists across the world, are doing – you can't have too much knowledge, really.
But, on the bigger side of things, what do we do with it? It's all well and good to say “well, we can monitor these glacial lakes. We can put in evacuation procedures and protocol and things like that,” but that's essentially putting a band aid over the issue. What we need to do as a society is just, just chunk up and we all need to be invested. We all need to have an understanding about what the consequence is, and to have the data from this amazing research helps us understand what the consequence is and how far away that consequence may be.
The scary thing is – and I only heard about it literally today, as Duncan was saying – it's a lot closer than we thought it is. So, collectively, we need to understand: what is it that we can do, collectively and individually, that's going to make a difference?
Rich Williams: And I think it's probably worth saying, Duncan, we're talking about communities that are far away from where we're sat at the moment, but an impact on those communities from a long-term basis has a global impact on all of us.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Yeah, that's the impact of climate change the world over. [It] is that it's not just these areas where people are going to be displaced because their water resources are diminishing to a point where they can't live there anymore.
You know, more broadly, the major impact of a changing climate is that large towns, cities, whole regions, will be displaced, and they will migrate to places where the conditions are a lot more favourable, a lot more pleasant. That will ultimately be affecting people here in the UK. People here in the UK may naturally migrate to other places too.
It just means that those areas where we want to live will become a lot more under demand, and with that comes all of the problems associated with dense populations – you know, a degradation in conditions, and probably things like disease transmission ultimately.
Kenton Cool: The really scary thing is – and Duncan and I have sort of spitballed this between us before – and obviously Duncan is, is very much data-driven. He's a professor. He's, you know, a leading expert. I'm not. I'm little more than a voice, a spokesperson, but we can essentially cut it down to: it's global warming. And with that comes all the inherent problems – ice loss, whether it's from a glacier or whether it's from an ice cap – and probably in our lifetimes, we're going to start seeing the effects of water driven mass-migration.
You know, certain countries which rely on those Himalayan glaciers are going to become uninhabitable. Other areas are going to be flooded, like Bangladesh. The planet is changing at ever-increasing rates. We see it in Blatten, we see it in Tame, we see it in the Himalayas, but it's going to affect everyone. And as soon as people realize that, then we will see change.
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Rich Williams: Okay, we started the podcast by asking how we can minimise the impact of melting glaciers and preserve them, and the work you've been talking about is amazing. I'm going to put you in a scenario where you wake up tomorrow morning and one thing could change to improve, whether it's research or to see impact from that research. What is that? One thing that would really help in the first instance. Duncan, I'm going to come to you first. What do you want to see?
Professor Duncan Quincey: I mean, the most obvious request, if it's really open to anything, is for countries to really commit to those reductions in carbon emissions that were made in the Paris Agreement and that have slipped and slipped and slipped.
There's plenty of literature which shows that every single degree makes a huge difference to how long these glaciers are around for. So we can take that action, and we can preserve those mountain landscapes for many more years than they're forecast to at the moment, and that requires people who can make decisions, to step up and make those decisions.
The other thing that I would say is that we need to give greater exposure in our media to these sorts of issues, because, you know, like the Tame flood, right until you'd researched into this, did you see anything on that at all?
Rich Williams: No.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Like, would my family know about that? No. Do we ever hear about these sorts of disasters? That village that Kenton's talking about, that could get cut off in the Karakorum, do we have a clue about that? No. And so, I think, to expect people to realize the severity of the problem... They don't get exposed to any of this stuff.
Rich Williams: Yeah. And Lauren for you, maybe from a research point of view, from you there are certain things that you want to go and do next, actually more data that you can get that you're talking about. What is that one thing that, if someone said “right tomorrow, yep, Lauren, everything you need is there,” what would it be?
Dr Lauren Rawlins: I think, from a research point of view, it's making sure that any sort of knowledge gathered is kind of kept locally, essentially. So, it's empowering those local communities to understand the changes and for communities to better prepare and adapt to ultimately, what is happening that we don't want to happen, but what ultimately is currently happening, and also working with organisations to help enforce some of these adaptations.
Rich Williams: And Kenton finally, go on then, what about you?
Kenton Cool: Well, I think, I mean, obviously, I echo and amplify what Duncan says. And I ruthlessly steal this from George Monbiot – I watched an interview with him years ago now. They were talking about plastic waste or something like that, and he says, you know, it's kind of like just a waste of time to an extent. You know, there's much bigger problems at hand. And, he's absolutely right.
And one of the biggest problems is ice loss; glacial loss, you know, loss of ice from the ice caps. So, yeah, I amplify what Duncan says. And I suppose, just on an individual level, what can we do? You know, what are the things that we can do as individuals? And Monbiot, I think, absolutely smashed it when he said, we need to look at the ways that we travel, predominantly air travel.
And I hold my hands up – I am guilty as charged on that – I fly all over the world to be in the mountains, it's part of my job as a mountain guide. But we need to look at how we travel and be considerate about where we get our energy from.
And the third one is, is what we eat, and we need to be more understanding about the impact of our individual choices on the planet. And they will make a change if collectively we step up to the plate and accept accountability.
Rich Williams: I offered you one, and you took three. But it’s all fine, don't worry about it! It comes from a good place.
Kenton Cool: Personal accountability of the individual, there you go!
Rich Williams: Thank you all so much for joining us on this podcast. It really has been fascinating to hear about the work that you're doing.
And Duncan really, really appreciate your time.
Professor Duncan Quincey: Thank you for having us.
Rich Williams: Lauren, thank you so much for joining us.
Dr Lauren Rawlins: Thank you
Rich Williams: And Kenton, thanks so much as well.
Kenton Cool: It's been a pleasure.
Rich Williams: There you go. If you would like to find out more about the research Duncan and Lauren are doing at the University of Leeds, and about Kenton's work as well, we're going to put some links in the show notes. It's all there for you and I really, really encourage you to dip in and take a look.
My name is Rich Williams. This has been ‘How to Fix…’ and hopefully this podcast has shown that although society is facing some huge questions at the moment, there are some incredible people working tirelessly to help find the answers. These are massive issues, and throughout the series, we've been discussing the phenomenal work of the academics, politicians and practitioners who are making this world a better place.
Until the next episode, thanks for listening.
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[credits spoken by the producer] ‘How to Fix…’ was presented by Rich Williams, produced by Tom Taylor and Kathleen Johnston, and is a Podmasters production for the University of Leeds Communications and Engagement team.
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